TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
OVERVIEW
The Bucs are all in on the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality, and creative cap maneuvers have allowed them to bring back virtually the same exact team in 2021. Brady’s still underpaid, AB’s shenanigans drove the 60-yard-per-game receiver’s price down to pocket change, and Fournette’s still too excited about scoring in the Super Bowl and getting out of Jacksonville to care how much his contract’s worth. The 2020 Bucs were already the first team to feature three top 25 WRs in fantasy points per game since McVay’s Kupp/Woods/Cooks trio in 2018, and to make things even better in 2021, almost everybody on offense sans Brady and Mike Evans is in a contract year. Let’s be real – the QB hasn’t show many signs of aging, and this offense has every reason to be dynamic once again.
TOM BRADY (BDF Rank: QB10; ADP: QB10)
Not only are we perfectly aligned with the populous on Tom Brady rating-wise, but also our projections are nearly identical to his 2020 campaign (2020: 65.7 Cmp%, 4633 yards, 40 TDs, 12 Ints on 610 attempts (16 games)) // 2021 BDF: 65.7 Cmp%, 4683 yards, 40 TDs, 9 Ints on 626 attempts (17 games)). Our model actually has Brady’s attempts falling from 2nd to 9th, but it’s not all on him; the competition’s improved as well. Dak and Burrow return from injury, and the stars are aligned for Lawrence to have a massive volume season for the Jags. Still, that workload, combined with a steady diet of TDs, makes Brady a fairly safe play as a low-end QB1.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. If Brady’s your worst starter, you’re in good hands. Brady’s consistency is a huge fantasy asset; he threw at least 35 times in 13 of 16 games, and he threw more picks than TDs just once. He’s just not the kind of guy who’ll lose you your week. Plug him in and don’t worry about the QB position until his bye week.
RONALD JONES (BDF Rank: RB22; ADP: RB31)
You might be wondering how a guy who was ranked 6th in RB Yards Per Carry (5.1) in 2020 can barely crack RB3 value at his ADP. Sure, Jones may have taken a backseat to Fournette in the playoffs after suffering a quad contusion, but recency bias has folks ignoring a regular season where Rojo ran twice as many times as Fournette for nearly three times as many yards. Jones was a clear cut RB2 last year in just 14 games, and while his carries may take a dip, his floor is a high-end flex option. Let’s not forget, Rojo is one of the many offensive players on the Bucs playing for a new deal in 2022 as well.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. Don’t be scared to take Jones a whole round ahead of his ADP. He may have fallen under the radar during the Bucs Super Bowl run, but his regular season impact should not be forgotten.
LEONARD FOURNETTE (BDF Rank: RB44; ADP: RB30)
Fournette may be fresh in everyone’s mind after scoring in all four playoff games and topping 100 scrimmage yards in all but one. That’s all well and good, but his 3.8 regular season Yards Per Carry is more indicative of his true ability. Leo’s never been an efficient back, falling below 4 YPC in three of four seasons. Playing the workhorse role in Jacksonville masked his struggles, but there’s not much he can do fantasy-wise if he’s not a true feature back (which is isn’t in Tampa Bay). In a pre-Gio backfield he was already RB35. Now, his value will only go down from there.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. Anyone slotted at RB44 can’t be worth taking without serious upside. Leo has none unless Rojo goes down, and even then he’s likely still a two-down back at best with Gio Bernard lurking. Let someone else in your league fall for the ruse.
GIOVANNI BERNARD (BDF Rank: RB48; ADP: RB60)
Outside of the QB being rooted to the ground, the one flaw in Tampa Bay’s offense last year was the lack of a prominent receiving back. Bernard fills that role perfectly. Gio went for 355 yards on 59 targets last year; meanwhile it took Fournette and Jones 89 targets to get to 398 yards. He won’t get last year’s rushing workload simply by virtue of not starting 10 games, but they’ll run enough draws and such where he’ll have a non-negligible amount of volume. A high floor snap count makes Gio a bargain in fantasy, too.
BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. It’s tough to give a scat back the full “buy”, since their ceilings are generally limited. However, it seems people are underestimating the touches that are baked in for Bernard in this offense. RB48 makes Gio at least draftable in most leagues. He’ll stumble his way into a couple of big weeks, but predicting when those will be is another issue.
MIKE EVANS (BDF Rank: WR19; ADP: WR13)
Evans is due for some regression simply because Godwin, AB, and OJ Howard likely won’t miss a combined 24 games again next year. He’s unlikely to repeat his 13 TDs from last year as well, given his career TD rate per 16 games is 9.2. That being said, the BDF estimates are fairly kind to Evans, all things considered. His TDs regress, but his catches and yards basically stay the same, despite the enhanced competition for targets. It’s worth mentioning Evans is 7 for 7 in terms of 1,000 yard seasons in the league; year to year his floor is consistently high. BDF has him falling short of ADP, but if he drops in your draft he’s a safe WR2 play.
BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. Evans has never been a huge volume guy, even before the receiving room in Tampa Bay filled itself out; his mediocre catch rates have thus far prevented him from ever topping 100 catches, even when he was the sole focal point of the passing game. Hell, he couldn’t even cash in on a 173-target season. It’s hard to see him flirting with WR1 status like last year. Unless he dips into the 5th round there’s just too many mouths to feed for him to live up to that ADP.
CHRIS GODWIN (BDF Rank: WR28; ADP: WR17)
After a monster 2019, Godwin finished as the WR15 in [PPR] points per game last year, but clocked in at just WR32 overall. With the malady of injuries he had, he’s a decent bet to miss at least a game or two this time around as well. Godwin will also share the load with Brown and Howard. Even if he has a good run of health, he’ll be hard pressed to match the 7 targets a game he got last year. His efficiency’s solid, but like Evans, Godwin’s value is the casualty of a true three-receiver offense. Combine that with dubious availability, and you should probably fade him even more.
BDF Suggestion – FADE. Godwin never was the sole target leader (he tied twice) in the 8 games where the trio was all in. It should also be concerning that AB out-targeted Godwin by nearly a whole target per game in those 8 games. Not to say Godwin’s the third option; Brady’s attachment to Brown probably gets him more targets than his ability should mandate. It does show, however, that Godwin likely needs an injury to a Bucs WR other than himself to recoup value at that ADP.
ANTONIO BROWN (BDF Rank: WR33; ADP: WR48)
Perhaps like Ronald Jones, AB’s stock faded from a lackluster postseason where he netted just 8 catches for 71 yards. In terms of volume, though, Evans and Brown were the 1A and 1B during the regular season, and Godwin was the true WR2. Sure, AB’s significantly less efficient than the other two, but this time around he’ll benefit from more sufficient preparation in the preseason, as opposed to having to hop in on the fly in week 9. ADP treats Evans and Godwin like top dogs and Brown like a spare part, when really they’re all leaned upon relatively the same amount. BDF has AB as the #3, but by a much slimmer margin than most.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. It makes sense that Brown is the one getting undervalued in Tampa Bay’s offense; all of his games came with the other two receivers in the lineup, while Evans and Godwin benefitted from games with two or just one of the three playing. Going into his age 33 season, Brown’s capacity to pile up targets is still impressive. As long as Brady’s around, he’ll continue to make an impact on the Bucs.
O.J. HOWARD (BDF Rank: TE17; ADP: TE29)
Playing in only 4 games is one way to sink your ADP. Still, n those 4 games, Howard edged out Gronk in targets (19 to 14), catches (11 to 9), yards (146 to 88), and TDs (2 to 0). To be fair, Gronk didn’t play his best games; efficiency-wise they’re likely pretty even. It should speak volumes, though, that Brady trusted Howard that much right away given all the time he’s spent with Gronk. Howard’s in year 5 now, and Tampa’s eager see what they have in the former first round pick. Like the RB tandem, this isn’t a 1A-1B; this is one guy separating himself from the pack.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. Howard’s also a TD machine, scoring on 13.3% of his career catches. For context, that edges out New Orleans Jimmy Graham (13.2%), and it’s at least in the ballpark of his partner in crime Gronk (15.2%) for his career. Once Howard starts commanding significant looks, the scores will follow. Spending a draft pick on ADP TE29 probably isn’t advisable, but keep your eyes peeled on the waiver wire all year long.
ROB GRONKOWSKI (BDF Rank: TE34; ADP: TE13)
TE8 to TE34 would be a hell of a fall from grace. BDF thinks Howard will be the guy; based on last year’s sample, the prediction feels legitimate. A backup tight end can maintain fantasy relevancy somewhere like Philly where the receivers do very little, but not in an offense with all these weapons. ADP TE13 makes Gronk a bench guy on most teams anyway. Even still, you generally don’t want your backup to be a backup in real life too.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. Look at TE ADPs 14, 15, 16, and 17 – Irv Smith, Jonnu Smith, Higbee, Tonyan. BDF ranks them TE16, TE15, TE14 and TE12, all reasonable value for a safety valve tight end. Sans Jonnu, who signed for big money and will still be featured heavily, all those guys have their run of the tight end target share on their respective teams. That path to volume just doesn’t exist for Gronk anymore.