ATLANTA FALCONS

Photo Credit: Atlanta Falcons

OVERVIEW

The Falcons underwent a lot of changes this offseason and appear to be headed towards a rebuild. Atlanta split ways with Dan Quinn and poached former Titans’ OC Arthur Smith to fill their head coaching vacancy. Smith ran a very run heavy offense in Tennessee, so it will be interesting to see what kind of changes he makes in Atlanta, 2020’s most pass-happy team. On the personnel side of things, Atlanta dealt Julio Jones for a second round pick and released Todd Gurley. Gurley will be replaced by Mike Davis following the latter’s breakout season for the Carolina Panthers. Players like Jones don’t get easily replaced, but the Falcons did their best by selecting versatile TE Kyle Pitts with the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft. Pitts has the athleticism and versatility to play all over the field, and could potentially be the next great TE in the NFL. That being said, it’s tough to see the Falcons competing for any sort of playoff spot this year.

MATT RYAN (BDF Rank: QB32; ADP: QB14)

Though he struggled to win games last season, Matt Ryan managed to put together a solid fantasy performance. Ryan’s QB12 finish can be attributed largely to his insane volume, as the Falcons dropped back to pass a whopping 669 times in 2020. Unfortunately for Ryan, it’s unlikely that he’ll see a repeat of this volume in 2021. If Arthur Smith’s days in Tennessee are any indicator, he will want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. The Falcons shipping off Julio Jones for a second round pick only further raises suspicions that the team is going to adapt a run heavy scheme. Ryan’s protection also needs a serious upgrade. The veteran signal caller has been sacked 40+ times in each of the last three years. Finally, Ryan adds very little rushing value himself, eclipsing 30 fantasy points from rushing just once in his long career.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. There is too much working against Ryan to take him anywhere near his current ADP. The position is so flush with talent, its best to let others reach in this area of the draft.

MIKE DAVIS (BDF Rank: RB21; ADP: RB30)

Davis fell into a feature role when starter Christian McCaffrey went down with injury last year, posting career highs in virtually every statistical category. Davis, a career journeyman, was able to leverage this fine play into a two-year contract with the division rival Falcons. There’s a lot to like about Davis’ role this upcoming season. The Falcons did not draft a running back, and their only signings at the position were two UDFAs and converted WR Cordarrelle Patterson. It’s very possible we see Davis get another feature workload. That could be a very rewarding role with Arthur Smith calling the shots.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. We think Davis is a slam dunk at his current ADP. You won’t find a better floor/ceiling combo at RB this late in the draft.

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON/JAVIAN HAWKINS (BDF Rank: RB51/RB78; ADP: RB94/RB74)

Patterson and Hawkins will compete for secondary touches behind Mike Davis. UDFA Caleb Huntley may also get some looks, but that remains to be seen. Patterson is a converted WR who took 64 carries behind David Montgomery in Chicago last year, but he could also siphon some valuable passing down snaps from Mike Davis. The diminutive UDFA Hawkins profiles as a change of pace type player. We have seen UDFA RBs Philip Lindsay and James Robinson have great success in recent years, but it’s unlikely that Hawkins has the same path to a significant workload. Investment is on Davis’ side.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Leave both these backups on waivers. Patterson’s RB eligibility may depend upon which website hosts your league.

CALVIN RIDLEY (BDF Rank: WR7; ADP: WR6)

Ridley had all the ingredients for a third year WR breakout in 2020, and he delivered, finishing as the WR5 in PPR. Now Ridley has a chance to ascend to superstardom with Julio Jones out of town. Ridley averaged 11.3 targets per game in his seven games without Julio in 2020. He posted 110 yards or more in five of those seven games. The upside for Ridley is tremendous, but Arthur Smith may be the difference between Ridley being a league winner and just great. While he’s the sure-fire number one option either way, his upside will be capped if Smith is successful in implementing his run heavy scheme. On the other hand, Ridley could post a target number that begins with a two if Smith abandons the run in an effort to stay in games.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Ridley is a fine pick at his ADP, and even has additional upside depending on what sort of offense the new coaching staff ends up running.

RUSSELL GAGE/OLAMIDE ZACCHEAUS (BDF Rank: WR72/WR104; ADP: WR61/WR174)

Gage stepped into the slot role for the Falcons and achieved various degrees of success. He had four games with double digit targets and seven games with five or fewer targets. With the Falcons expected to lighten up on passing this year, we could be seeing more of the latter from Gage with less work to go around. Zaccheaus was also involved to varying degrees in 2020, posting three games with six or more targets and seven games with three or fewer. Zaccheaus will get pushed by Tajae Sharpe and Kyle Pitts for outside WR snaps opposite Calvin Ridley.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Neither player should be drafted right now in normal sized leagues. Gage could be worth an add in deeper leagues if you think the Falcons are going to remain pass heavy.

KYLE PITTS (BDF Rank: TE6; ADP: TE5)

One of the worst kept secrets in fantasy football is the lack of success for rookie TE’s, regardless of their draft capital. Only two years ago, we saw the Lions draft TJ Hockenson 8th overall just to watch him net a measly 59 targets. One of the biggest problems for Rookie TEs is blocking. Most receiving-focused rookie TEs do not come into the league as NFL-ready blockers. This results in them receiving fewer snaps as they learn to block at an NFL level. Pitts is no exception to this rule; he wasn’t even a good blocker at the college level. Still, with that being said, Pitts may be able to circumvent this popular playing time obstacle on account of his versatility. With Julio Jones out of town, the Falcons have an outside WR spot up for grabs. Olamide Zaccheaus and Tajae Sharpe are by no means locks to start. Pitts is athletic and versatile enough to play WR in the NFL, and could steal some snaps at the position.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Pitts is rightfully being drafted in the second tier of TEs behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller. Just keep in mind you may have to stomach some rough weeks with Pitts, especially early on.