THE MODEL
OUR PROCESS
Shortly after the NFL Draft, we get to work on making our projection model. We kick the process off with team by team total play and run-pass % projections. Generally, teams craft their game plan to fit their personnel, but we make some small coaching change adjustments to our regression analysis.
After the team projections are complete, we use regression and comparison analyses to divvy up the targets and carries to individual players. Next, we apply our efficiency model to the individual player targets, carries, and pass attempts. The efficiency model calculates total yards, receptions, and turnovers. All these statistics factor into the final piece of our projections – touchdowns. We use a regression analysis to project total red zone opportunities by team and individual, and apply efficiency metrics to the opportunities to project touchdowns.
We use these projections to make our final VOR (Value Over Replacement) draft rankings. The VOR rankings take league format and positional scarcity into account and produce a definitive set of value-based rankings. This year we are excited to announce that we are releasing fully interactive VOR rankings on our site. You can now input specific league parameters into our program and receive tailored rankings.
A final note on our VOR rankings: While we encourage you to use our rankings for your draft, please do not confuse these with a draft cheat sheet. These rankings and projections are designed to identify overvalued and undervalued players, not to tell you where to draft players. For example, our initial rankings have D’Andre Swift as a top five RB. We are not telling you to draft Swift in the first round. That would be foolish when you can grab him in the second or even third. Rather, the ranking is a vote of confidence in Swift at his ADP (Average Draft Position). Make sure to keep track of ADPs and how your specific league drafts.
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
Our statistics team is currently a three-man operation. We also have a fourth member, Jon, who runs our website, Twitter account, and contributes content. We have a great team and process in place, however, due to our personnel constraints we don’t have the capacity to do in depth scenario analyses. As a result, we have to make assumptions when it comes to position battles. This particularly affects our QB projections. Here are some of the assumptions we made this year:
- Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields will all be day one starters. We don’t think any of these are really groundbreaking. Maybe Fields sits the first few games of the season, but he’s a highly touted prospect that’s largely seen as NFL ready. Fields is only really draftable in two-QB/superflex formats, so make sure to pay attention to depth chart reports if he’s on your radar in such a league.
- Cam Newton will be the day one starter. Cam was not good in his first year in New England, but the Patriots had very little in the way of help for him. The Pats loaded up on weapons this off-season, and we think Cam gets a second chance. Combine this with Bill Belichick’s general aversion to playing rookies and it’s tough to see Mac Jones getting a lot of time this year. We will monitor the situation throughout the offseason and update accordingly.
- Jimmy Garappolo will maintain his job throughout the year. The 49ers traded up and invested significant draft capital in Trey Lance. Lance is an intriguing talent and has great potential, but he’s largely seen as a project. The Niners also have a really good supporting cast. It’s tough to see them making a change if they are winning games with Jimmy G. We will monitor the situation throughout the offseason and update accordingly.
- Taysom Hill will be the day one starter. The saints have heavy capital invested in Taysom Hill, and need to make the contract worth it. Additionally, the Saints turned to Hill last year when Drew Brees was out with injury. This all points to Hill being the day one starter. We will monitor the situation throughout the offseason and update accordingly.
- Drew Lock will be the day one starter. This could go either way between Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. For now, we are going to assume the incumbent Lock keeps his job. We will monitor the situation throughout the offseason and update accordingly.