CAROLINA PANTHERS

OVERVIEW

The Panthers have a lot going on this year. After an injury-riddled 2020, Christian McCaffrey, the best RB – and player – in fantasy football, returns fully healthy for the 2021 season. Carolina has a new starting QB as well, trading with the Jets for the beleaguered Sam Darnold. While this will be the best supporting cast the former 3rd overall pick has ever had, it’s unclear how much that will help him in the long run; Sam has been flat out bad up to this point in his career. Will poor QB play hurt the fantasy outlook of high end receivers like D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson? Or will supporting talent and good coaching help Darnold live up to his former draft status?

SAM DARNOLD (BDF Rank: QB25; ADP: QB32)

 After three seasons of being held back on the Jets by terrible coaching, poor receivers, and an even worse o-line, Sam Darnold finally has a chance to prove what he’s capable of with a solid supporting cast in Carolina. That being said, excuses are often the nails used to build a house of failure. Darnold was awful in 2020, posting a career low 2,208 passing yards while throwing for only 9 TDs and 11 INTs. Even with the deck stacked against him, that’s bad. His stats are naturally going to improve in a Joe Brady scheme built around his strengths with support from Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and his old pal Robby Anderson, but expectations need to be tempered. This is a QB who has the potential to go from bad to serviceable in 2021.

 BDF Suggestion – BUY. Sam should probably stay on waivers in 1QB leagues; in 2QB formats, he’s worth a flier in a brand new offense at his current ADP.

 CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (BDF Rank: RB1; ADP: RB1)

 There’s not much to say about Christian McCaffrey. He’s the most versatile rushing and receiving threat in the game, and should continue to be the focal point of this Carolina offense, especially with a questionable QB under center who’ll love checking the ball down. McCaffrey caught the injury bug in 2020, but outside of last season, durability has been one of his greatest strengths throughout his NFL and collegiate career. Expect the future #1 overall pick to return at full strength, ready to make fantasy owners proud again.  

 BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. McCaffrey is BDF’s RB1. McCaffrey is everybody else’s RB1. If you’re blessed with the first overall pick in your league this year, don’t overthink it.

CHUBA HUBBARD (BDF Rank: RB59; ADP: RB54)

 The 4th round pick out of Oklahoma State should have a hard time creating a role for himself behind Christian McCaffrey. That being said, we all saw how Mike Davis flourished when CMC went down last season. While McCaffrey should return at 100%, and has been incredibly durable throughout his pre-2020 career, the sheer possibility of Hubbard getting RB1 action might make him worth stashing in deeper leagues.

 BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Again, as long as McCaffrey’s on the field, don’t expect much fantasy value from Hubbard. But in an NFL where it’s becoming increasingly rarer to find teams employing a true bell cow RB (the Panthers), this rookie backup isn’t the worst late round stash in deeper leagues… Just in case.

 D.J. MOORE (BDF Rank: WR24; ADP: WR21)

 Last year, D.J. Moore put up a career high 18.1 YPR with Teddy Bridgewater under center, which is even more incredible when you consider the fact that star RB Christian McCaffrey was sidelined for virtually the entire season, allowing opposing defenses to focus more attention on Carolina’s passing game than usual. Moore has never been a big TD guy (10 total over 3 seasons). He earns his fantasy salt racking up receiving yards, and while that may alarm potential owners who’ve checked out Sam Darnold’s 2020 Yards Per Attempt (6.1), you can rest assured that our model doesn’t predict any dip in Moore’s production this season. The 4th year wideout is an expert at creating his own yards after the catch, so expect Joe Brady to scheme him open in space and trust Moore to do the rest.

 BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Moore is one of those receivers who doesn’t need great QB play to produce, but his ceiling will always be limited until he becomes a bigger threat in the red zone. There’s no reason to reach for him, but you should feel very comfortable drafting him at his ADP.

 ROBBY ANDERSON (BDF Rank: WR41; ADP: WR35)

 Panthers Head Coach Matt Rhule and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady really expanded Robby Anderson’s route tree last season. Labeled exclusively as a deep threat in New York, the speedster was forced to make a living on big chunk plays, making him a generally unreliable fantasy option in a Jets offense that always had trouble moving the ball. In Carolina, however, Anderson is a far more complete receiver. It makes sense, then, that his first year in Joe Brady’s offense saw his Yards Per Reception drop from 15 (2019) to 11.5, and his Receptions almost double from 52 (2019) to 95. Even though Anderson will be reuniting with his former Jets QB Sam Darnold this season, fantasy owners should feel a lot more comfortable playing him each week knowing that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to contribute to the offense beyond running go routes.

 BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. Just like his teammate D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson’s fantasy upside is always going to be a bit limited until he can find the end zone more regularly. Unfortunately, Sam Darnold probably won’t provide much help in that department. If he drops in your draft, great. Otherwise, let someone else take Robby at his ADP.

 TERRACE MARSHALL JR./DAVID MOORE (BDF Rank: WR88/N/A; ADP: WR73/WR132)

 In an attempt to fill the void left by Curtis Samuel, the Panthers signed David Moore in free agency and used a second round pick on Terrace Marshall Jr. in the draft. While both of them will provide some nice depth for QB Sam Darnold, neither project to make much of an impact fantasy-wise. Moore and Marshall Jr. are both buried on the receiver depth chart behind D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and versatile RB Christian McCaffrey. While there should be a fair amount of targets leftover after the big three are fed, Moore and Marshall Jr. will likely siphon those opportunities from each other, resulting in a fantasy wasteland.

 BDF Suggestion – FADE. David Moore is in Carolina to provide additional receiver depth, and Terrace Marshall Jr. simply won’t have the opportunity to make a big fantasy splash as a rookie. Leave both of these guys on waivers.

DAN ARNOLD (BDF Rank: TE33; ADP: TE46)

 We’ll keep this one short and sweet: the Panthers are still looking for Greg Olsen’s replacement. Dan Arnold was serviceable for Arizona in 2020, but Carolina has so much receiving depth, there’s no reason for Joe Brady to feature a TE in this offense unless he’s an absolute stud.

 BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. While our model projects Dan Arnold to play well above his current ADP, he’s still not a draftable player unless you’re in some wonky three TE league. Assuming you’re in a normal format, Arnold can stay on waivers.