NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Photo Credit: New Orleans Saints
OVERVIEW
The Taysom Hill era is about to begin in the Bayou. We can only extrapolate from Hill’s 4 starts in Brees’ absence last year, but one thing feels pretty certain – there’s going to be some growing pains. That being said, Taysom’s unique rushing profile combined with surprisingly efficient passing might actually make him a solid fantasy asset who’ll be worth monitoring as he finally gets a real chance to develop as a starter. From a skill position standpoint, Kamara and Thomas just weren’t the same guys without Brees; but just how chasmic will those drop-offs be over a full season? That’s a big question for New Orleans, especially since there’s virtually no fantasy value to be had on this roster after that two-headed monster.
TAYSOM HILL (BDF Rank: QB15; ADP: QB23)
Taysom Hill, the 30-year-old sort-of QB, takes command of the offense at long last. To his credit, Hill did his best Brees impression when given the opportunity to start last year, posting a 72% completion percentage and an above average 7.3 Yards Per Attempt. He also had the 4th lowest “bad throw” percentage of any starter last year behind Bridgewater, Tannehill, and Brees himself. He might turn out to be just a game manager with legs, but the public seems to be underselling the inherent fantasy value of a rushing QB. Hill averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game over his four starts; that would’ve made him QB12 extrapolated over a full 16-game season. There’s no doubt he needs to take better care of the ball (he fumbled 6 times in those games), but if he can keep himself on the field, the Saints’ new starter has a high ceiling.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. Swipe Taysom well ahead of that ADP. The rushing provides a great floor, making him a very comfortable QB2. In 1QB leagues, he can be had late and stashed away for bye weeks or an eventual starting role if he proves his worth. In 2QB, you can snag a bench flex or two before falling back on Taysom as your second starter.
ALVIN KAMARA (BDF Rank: RB6; ADP: RB3)
Fun fact: Kamara only had 0.6 more fantasy points in the 4 Taysom Hill games combined than he did in his Week 15, 6 TD bonanza (56.8 to 56.2). Sure, the numbers will improve from that sample (14.2 points per game won’t hold water when he combined for just 7 receiving yards in 3 of those games), but Kamara’s primary issue with Hill under center is TD regression, partially because Hill syphons precious red zone looks. Nearly a third of Taysom’s rushes came inside the 20. Inside the 5, he tied for the 8th most TDs despite only really playing a few games. It’s too bad for Alvin because he’s no slouch at the goal line himself (he cashed in 9 of his 12 attempts inside the 5). He’s still going to be great. He’ll rack up his usual receiving stats, and his rushing volume didn’t dip with Taysom either. The lack of TDs, however, keeps Alvin just out of the BDF top 5 RBs.
BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. Even if you don’t buy Swift and Aaron Jones like BDF do, Henry should go ahead of Alvin based on both volume and TD potential. The top backs tend to shuffle in order, and you could find yourself in a spot where Alvin’s at least breaking even on value. That being said, if you’re picking top 3, he might be worth a pass.
LATAVIUS MURRAY (BDF Rank: RB41; ADP: RB47)
In the words of Talking Heads, “same as it ever was!” Here’s Murray’s stat lines over the last 3 years:
2018: 140 carries, 578 yards, 6 TDs,
2019: 146 carries, 637 yards, 5 TDs
2020: 146 carries, 656 yards, 4 TDs
In those 3 seasons, he finished RB38, RB28, and RB34 respectively; so the sudden ADP drop-off into the late 40s is strange. BDF actually projects Murray’s volume to go up next year despite competing with Hill for a full season. Of course, the whole backup RB thing chokes off any sort of ceiling. Labeling him a handcuff is also tricky; it’s been 4 years since he was last a workhorse. Would Sean Payton really run a 31-year old Murray into the ground? It’s a shame he and Alex Mattison can’t trade places. Though his role is set in stone, Murray is coming off his second best YPC season since his sparsely-used rookie year. The floor is so high that the ADP shouldn’t scare you.
BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. Latavius will do what he always does: knock on the door of double-digit points each game. Getting a point or two more than that waivers guy you would’ve picked up isn’t nothing. The lack of ceiling makes him a last resort play, but Murray shouldn’t turn in too many sub-replacement level weeks.
MICHAEL THOMAS (BDF Rank: WR21; ADP: WR9)
It would be cherry-picking to say Thomas excelled with Hill. Technically he did, racking up 343 receiving yards in those 4 games, despite not scoring any TDs. But that would be blatantly omitting the other 3 games MT played, when he combined for just 95 yards and, again, didn’t score. The injuries aren’t an excuse either, considering he played his best ball after his return. In short, Thomas just isn’t the target machine he used to be. In 2019, he amassed double digit targets in 12 of 16 games. He only played 7 games last year, but hit that volume just twice. More touches for Hill means Thomas’ forecast is much more likely to resemble 2020 than 2019. He barely cleared 1000-yard pace last year, and while he won’t put up another goose egg in the TD column, a low efficiency target hog coming to terms with a reduced workload should generally be avoided.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. Even if we see a revitalized Thomas with newfound health, drafting him as a WR1 is a sucker’s bet. He needed a high-volume offense where he was only sharing targets with Kamara to put up the numbers he was getting. Now that Hill’s lurking, 150 target seasons no longer feel feasible. Let someone else make the mistake.
TRE’QUAN SMITH (BDF Rank: WR74; ADP: WR82)
With Kamara and Thomas projected for nearly 40% of Hill’s pass attempts, there’s not much left to go around. Believe it or not, Tre’Quan is the Saints second leading returning receiver behind Kamara, with 448 yards. Smith was efficient last year, but BDF’s projected 80 targets just isn’t enough to be truly fantasy relevant. Even WR4s generally get 100+ throws their way. There is upside on the off chance he can push Calloway and an emerging Harris out of the picture, but most likely, he’ll need an injury to be worth tossing into lineups.
BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. BDF likes his 9 yards/target and thinks he’ll return some value. That doesn’t mean he’ll be worth rostering, but with the right matchup, he could be serviceable in a pinch.
MARQUEZ CALLAWAY (BDF Rank: WR100; ADP: N/A)
Although Callaway did well to crack the rotation as an undrafted rookie, he had just 2 games over 50 yards, and both came with Thomas sidelined. He can’t really claim to be the true number three on the depth chart; Deonte Harris is breathing down his neck for that role. He gets a slight bump relative to ADP mainly because Hill is so undervalued, but he shouldn’t be on your radar anytime soon.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Callaway just scrapes into the BDF top 100! If he’s in your lineup though, something went awry.
DEONTE HARRIS (BDF Rank: WR91; ADP: WR136)
Harris’ one shining moment was the playoff game against the Bears, where he amassed 7 grabs for 83 yards. He then followed it up with a nice little -1 yard against Tampa Bay. Harris might have the upside to pull off another Bears game, but it’s unlikely Kamara gets held to 2 targets again; it’s happened just 6 times in his career over 67 games including playoffs. That being said, Harris can at least provide a little boom or bust potential.
BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. What kills Harris’ intrigue is that most of the looks in this offense are already locked in. MT, Kamara, and Murray are all known commodities. If he were somewhere like Detroit where a ton of targets are up for grabs, he could maybe shine. For now, Harris’ obscurity reigns on.
ADAM TRAUTMAN (BDF Rank: TE36; ADP: TE21)
BDF only project James O’Shaughnessy in Jacksonville and Maxx Williams in Arizona to be worse starting TEs than Trautman. It’s quite the drop off from Jared Cook, who was at least a TE2 last year. Trautman couldn’t even crack 200 yards in 2020. Hill didn’t throw to the TE much, even when he had Cook; this guy should net even fewer targets.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. A very healthy fade for a guy who’s already just barely being drafted as a TE2. Look elsewhere.