SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Photo Credit: Seattle Seahawks
OVERVIEW
The Seattle Seahawks will look to defend their NFC West title this season, following an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2020. Seattle hired Rams’ Passing Game Coordinator Shane Waldron to be their new Offensive Coordinator and drafted WR Dwayne Eskridge in the second round. These moves may signal the Seahawks desire to pass more after taking a very run-heavy approach in the second half of 2020. They also let Carlos Hyde walk in free agency and resigned Chris Carson, opening up the door for the latter to become a true feature back. Seattle will face competition for the NFC West crown from an improved Rams team, but the Seahawks should, at worst, compete for a wildcard spot.
RUSSELL WILSON (BDF Rank: QB5; ADP: QB6)
2020 was a tale of two halves for Russell Wilson. In Weeks 1-8, Wilson was the QB1 overall in fantasy, despite only playing seven games. It appeared as though the Seahawks finally decided to #LetRussCook. Wilson was leading the league in TD passes and was a heavy favorite in the MVP race. Unfortunately, it all came crashing down when Pete Carroll pulled in the reigns in the second half of the season. Wilson dropped to QB16 in PPG from Weeks 9-17, one spot below Drew Lock. Russ was by no means unstartable in the second half of the year, but he certainly was a disappointment after such a hot start. Volume was one culprit in Russ’ decline – he went from 36.6 attempts per game in the first half to 33.6 in the second – but the drop in volume doesn’t tell the full story. The main reason for the drastic change in output was TD efficiency. Wilson threw a TD once every 9.8 passes in the first half of the year. In the second half, Russ threw a TD just once every 21.6 pass attempts. It will be interesting to see if Shane Waldron continues with the team’s run heavy approach from last season, though it may not matter for Wilson’s fantasy prospects. Russ has been able to overcome low volume in past years through his efficiency and rushing ability.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Russell Wilson has a long track record of success and we shouldn’t knock him for one cold stretch last year. Russ should get back to producing at a high level in 2021.
CHRIS CARSON (BDF Rank: RB8; ADP: RB21)
On a per game basis, Chris Carson has finished as a top 15 PPR RB in each of the last three seasons. Carson was as effective as ever in 2020, posting a career best 4.8 YPC despite not having a single rush over 30 yards. Carson also showed improvement as a pass catcher last season, posting career highs in receptions and receiving yards despite only playing 12 games. With Carlos Hyde now out of town, Carson has the opportunity to exceed his 2019 touch total (315). If Carson continues to improve as a pass catcher, a top 5 PPR finish isn’t out of the question.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. Carson’s ADP is likely deflated due to his injury struggles last season. Don’t be discouraged, Carson is an absolute steal at his ADP.
DEEJAY DALLAS/RASHAAD PENNY (BDF Rank: RB68/RB77; ADP: RB115/RB52)
Dallas and Penny will compete with Travis Homer for backup work behind Chris Carson. Carson projects as a bell cow who should approach 300 touches, so it’s unlikely any of his three backups will see enough work to make them fantasy relevant. Penny is a former first round pick, but that hasn’t helped him get touches up to this point in his career.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Leave all of the Seattle reserves on waivers, even if Carson does go down with injury again.
D.K. METCALF (BDF Rank: WR2; ADP: WR5)
Metcalf broke out in a major way in 2020, establishing himself as one of the most explosive players in the NFL. D.K. finished seventh in PPR scoring among WRs, despite finishing 13th at the position in targets. Metcalf’s weapons of choice were his speed and big play ability. The sophomore wideout finished second at the position with five receptions of 40+ yards. Now entering his third season, a common breakout year for receivers, Metcalf has a chance to break into the elite tier of WRs. Even if Seattle continues their run-heavy approach, D.K. won’t need a ton of targets to produce with his explosiveness and Russell Wilson under center.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. Metcalf has the talent and opportunity to become an elite fantasy receiver and overall NFL superstar.
TYLER LOCKETT (BDF Rank: WR12; ADP: WR21)
Many fantasy analysts have been quick to point out Lockett’s weekly inconsistencies in 2020. They’re not wrong – Lockett had 46.4% of his PPR points in just three games last year, however the reaction to his bust weeks are overblown. Outside of his three boom games, Locket had six games with ten or more PPR fantasy points. This is fine production for a player who is being drafted as a borderline WR3. Ten points out of your WR3 isn’t necessarily going to lose you a given week, but 40 points out of your WR3 will almost certainly win you a week. Draft Lockett with confidence.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. Ignore the talk about Lockett’s inconsistencies. He has a great connection with one of the most efficient QBs in the league. Lockett is going to help a lot of sharp teams win fantasy games.
DWAYNE ESKRIDGE (BDF Rank: WR60; ADP: WR88)
Eskridge was selected by the Seahawks in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Second round is fairly heavy draft capital for a WR, so it’s likely Seattle has bigger plans for Eskridge than just being a depth addition. One option may be to move Tyler Lockett permanently to the slot and use Eskridge as a deep threat opposite D.K. Metcalf. Eskridge has 4.4 speed and averaged 23.3 YPR in his Senior season at Western Michigan, so this type of role is perfect for his skill set.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. Eskridge may not see a lot of looks behind Lockett and Metcalf, but that’s not necessarily the end of the world. We have seen many Seattle receivers succeed on low volume with Russell Wilson under center. Eskridge is okay as a late round flier.
GERALD EVERETT/WILL DISSLY (BDF Rank: TE30/35; ADP: TE22/TE54)
The Seahawks have had a bit of a revolving door at tight end over the past few years. This season is no different, following the retirement of Greg Olsen. Gerald Everett will step in after four seasons with the Rams, but he will face competition from Dissly. This offense hasn’t featured tight ends in a long time, and that trend won’t break this year. With Lockett, Metcalf, and Eskridge lining up out wide, Seattle likely won’t use many two TE sets, which means the opportunities at the position will be scarce.
BDF Suggestion – Fair Value. This passing attack doesn’t have enough volume to support two top 20 receivers and a fantasy relevant TE. Leave Everett and Dissly on waivers.