LOS ANGELES RAMS

Photo Credit: Los Angeles Rams

OVERVIEW

Ever since McVay’s high-octane wonderchild season, the Rams have utterly plummeted, going from second in points in 2018 to 11th in 2019 to 23rd last year. The Goff-Staff swap should bump that up a little bit, but by how much? Goff was actually just 0.04 fantasy points per game worse than Stafford last year. Then there’s the issue of Stafford going from the worst defense in Lions history to an elite one. Even while constantly playing from behind, he was only 12th in pass attempts in 2020. Meanwhile, the Rams skill position unit’s basically the same, so if Stafford’s not a huge upgrade, it’s reasonable to assume we could see a mediocre fantasy offense once again.

MATTHEW STAFFORD (BDF Rank: QB23; ADP: QB13)

Stafford’s efficiency isn’t in question. In fact, BDF projects him to have the second most yards/attempt in the league behind Justin Herbert. The problem is BDF also projects him to finish 27th in pass attempts. It might seem farfetched that a team would spend two firsts on a guy only to use him so sparsely, but the Rams had the 7th highest rush play percentage last year. Some may say that’s only because Goff is a game manager, but just 2 years ago in 2019, the former Rams QB actually tied Jameis Winston for most pass attempts in the league with 626. Point being, McVay isn’t afraid to fluctuate his team’s run-pass usage, and Stafford won’t be exempt from that treatment.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. It’s tough to recommend a low-volume QB coming into a new system. The low volume is probably best for Stafford’s longevity; his 16-game pass attempt pace for his career is a whopping 603.2. However, from a fantasy standpoint, his days of being an undervalued fringe-QB1 chucker are as good as gone.

CAM AKERS (BDF Rank: RB29; ADP: RB11)

There’s no denying Akers was phenomenal down the stretch. He racked up 645 yards in his last 7 games, including the playoffs. Before buying into the hype, though, there’s some things to consider. For starters, there’s the sample size issue. Is half a great season with zero receiving upside enough to buy at a borderline-RB1 ADP? There’s also the stark volume difference in the 4 wins they had (24.8 carries per game) vs the 3 losses (14). Of course, a discrepancy is expected for all RBs, but 10 carries a game is a rough drop off. The Rams are a good team that will generate favorable game scripts for him, but their lack of RB involvement in the passing game makes it hard for Akers to recoup value when the team’s trailing.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. Everyone might want to focus on the end of last year, but you also can’t forget  Henderson’s solid first half. He eventually ran out of steam, and was rightfully replaced, but he showed he can be a decent starter at least part time. If Akers gets hurt again or has fumble issues, McVay will be plenty comfortable throwing Henderson back into the rotation. Akers will be the main guy, but it’s much closer to a 1A-1B scenario than folks realize.

DARRELL HENDERSON (BDF Rank: RB43; ADP: RB50)

Henderson actually had a slightly higher YPC than Akers last year (4.5 to 4.3), bouncing back from a poor rookie year where he had 3.8 YPC and not a single TD. The ADP isn’t too surprising, considering many have forgotten that Henderson did most of his damage before November. However, even later that year, he showed signs of returning to form. After a three-game stretch that saw Henderson with just six carries, Akers got injured again, and Henderson ran for 62 yards in week 16 at Seattle, his most since week 7. Then he went on IR and missed the rest of the year. If Henderson stays healthy, McVay faces a tougher decision on how to allocate the workload between him and Akers heading into the playoffs. We’ll have to see how he handles that decision this year.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. The Rams were the only team last year with 3 RBs who had at least 100 carries. Malcolm Brown left for Miami, but McVay hasn’t exactly shown loyalty to his backs. If the rotation is anything close to a timeshare, Henderson returns value.

ROBERT WOODS (BDF Rank: WR15; ADP: RB18)

Woods has been a top 15 WR 3 years running, and BDF thinks he’ll do it again. Think of Woods as Stafford’s new Golladay: an effective X receiver capable of being a number one. Before injuries all but wiped out Golladay’s 2020 season, he was the 9th best WR in 2019, on the back of an 11 TD campaign. Woods has never broken 6 TDs before, but BDF predicts he’ll be good for 9.8 based on the QB upgrade. The additional competition for targets neutralizes the Staff boost a bit, but there’s still value to be had.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. This would be an odd season for Woods; normally his receptions and yards carry him, but this time around, BDF has him at just 17th in catches and 23rd in yards, but 10th in TDs. It’s a crowded depth chart, but Woods is a mainstay and efficient enough to overcome a slight volume dip.

COOPER KUPP (BDF Rank: WR23; ADP: WR22)

Unfortunately for Kupp, Stafford doesn’t have a great history of throwing touchdowns to slot receivers. Tate’s 16-game pace in Detroit was 1069 yards, but just 5.5 TDs. Amendola is just bad anyway you slice it, but finding the end zone just once in two seasons is a pretty rough fantasy break. Kupp’s career 17-game pace is 7.6 TDs – 8.3 if you exclude his rookie year. BDF predicts 5.9 in 2021, a fairly significant downgrade. Like Woods, Kupp is an incumbent and will still see a ton of action, but he could lose 15-20 targets to the new additions. The TD disparity makes Woods the Rams WR to own this year.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Kupp finished 26th among WRs last year. To be fair, that’ll happen when you only score three times. However, odds don’t seem great that he’ll score much more than that this time around. Don’t take Kupp any higher than a WR3.

VAN JEFFERSON (BDF Rank: N/A; ADP: WR108)

The Rams not only replaced Josh Reynolds with D-Jax in free agency, but they also felt compelled to draft a receiver with their first pick (albeit a second rounder), even after using the same pick (#57) on Jefferson a year earlier. That’s not exactly a huge show of confidence in the 25-year-old sophomore. Even as a blatantly overaged rookie last year, he failed to make his mark. 9 times out of 10, it’s not a good sign when 2 TEs on your own team rack up more yards than you do.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. A team projected for the 27th ranked passing volume simply can’t support 5 WRs, and signs point towards Jefferson being the casualty.

TUTU ATWELL (BDF Rank: WR58; ADP: WR153)

Tutu’s microscopic frame makes Devonta Smith look like Fatty Arbuckle. More than a one-hit wonder at Louisville, he racked up 18 TDs in 22 games over his sophomore and junior seasons, maintaining a 16.6 career YPR to boot. Also, wouldn’t you know it, he’s three years younger than Mr. Jefferson. However, Kupp bumping him out of his natural slot position hurts. Tutu’s wheels are unquestioned, but it remains to be seen how the 155-pound Atwell will hold up against press coverage.

BDF Suggestion – BUY. BDF has Tutu as a fringe roster guy. If Kupp goes down, though, and Tutu can run amuck in the middle of the field, there’s some real upside to be had.

DESEAN JACKSON (BDF Rank: WR108; ADP: WR94)

The tough pill to swallow for D-Jax is that Atwell’s already a big play threat, and a second round pick is a much greater investment of capital than a 1 year $3 million contract. This isn’t to knock Jackson, who even at 34 still makes the most of his opportunities; BDF projects him for the 24th highest yards/target. There are just too many bodies for him to get enough looks to really stand out in any way. He may very well add his most value in the return game, which of course doesn’t do his fantasy outlook any good.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. Like Tutu, there’s a path where injuries might make him a decent streaming option. For now, leave him alone.

TYLER HIGBEE (BDF Rank: TE12; ADP: TE16)

Higbee followed up a TE8 campaign in 2019 by slipping all the way down to TE17 last year. BDF basically thinks he’ll split the difference in 2021. The public’s low opinion of him is understandable given all the receiving options. Perhaps, though, they’re undervaluing Staff’s proclivity for throwing to the TE. Hockenson’s workload last year could be construed as inflated given the Golloday injury, but in 2019, Hock got 43 targets in his 7 starts as a rookie, a 16-game pace of 98 (he had 101 in 2020). Also, Higbee’s low key one of the most efficient TEs in the game. The past 3 years he’s averaged 8.5 yards/target, a top 10 mark for a TE in most seasons. Combine that with solid attention from Staff, and Higbee’s a true bounce-back candidate.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. Higbee’s 2019 season really has gotten swept under the rug; he finished 6th in yards among TEs that year, as well. The volume won’t be there this year for him to repeat that type of performance, but when he’s being valued as barely rosterable, Higbee’s worth a late round flyer.