NEW YORK GIANTS

Photo Credit: New York Giants

OVERVIEW

With Saquon Barkley back and Kenny Golladay on board, New York hopes to return closer to 2019 form, where they finished 18th in points before regressing all the way to 31st last year. Nate Solder also returns after sitting out last year for COVID, though at 33 years old and likely playing out of position, his impact is dubious. Of course, Daniel Jones could press Alt + F4 on the whole season if he bumbles like he did last year. Missing Saquon as a safety valve hurt, but Jones’ regression from his rookie season should still be cause for concern. There will be inevitable improvement, but likely not to the extent fans are hoping to see.

DANIEL JONES (BDF Rank: QB30; ADP: QB27)

Both BDF and the average Joe co-sign Jones being trash once again. Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard formed a pretty meh group of weapons, but it wasn’t bad enough to excuse Jones barely finishing with more TDs than picks. Sure, Kenny G’s a big add, but he’s in for a rude awakening himself going from Stafford to Danny Dimes. BDF does have his TD-INT ratio essentially returning to 2019 form (26 TDs/13 picks), but a 60.1% projected completion percentage in the 2021 NFL is just too much to overcome. Make no mistake, Jones is the anchor that will sink this team.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. QB27 vs QB30 is kind of splitting hairs, but the reality is Jones should be nothing more than a bye week stream.

SAQUON BARKLEY (BDF Rank: RB12; ADP: RB5)

It’s hard to read too much into Saquon’s lost 2020 season with only 2 games on the stat sheet. Regardless, several red flags linger. First up: his meager yards before contact numbers. Even in his monster rookie year he was just ok there, ranking 22nd out of 49 qualified RBs in YBC/Carry. In 2019, Saquon fell even further to 31st out of 45 qualified RBs. A turnstile o-line certainly contributed to that dismal stat, but even with potential improvement in Thomas’s sophomore campaign, we don’t expect that unit to be much better this year. The other red flag is the guy under center. Saquon’s stellar 2018 campaign was Eli’s last year as a starter, and once Jones took the reigns the following season, the RB’s stats dropped across the board as teams realized they could generally stack the box at will. The cold hard truth is Saquon can’t possibly return to his 2018 form unless the QB situation improves.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. On top of all the above, there’s still the ACL issue. It’s uncertain if Saquon will be ready for week 1, but his recovery should compromise his offseason regardless. That alone should make drafters queasy. Couple the injury concerns with shoddy o-line and QB play, and it’s a recipe for underachievement.

DEVONTA BOOKER (BDF Rank: RB60; ADP: RB71)

Most of the disparity between BDF’s ranking and Booker’s ADP is related to volume. BDF is giving Booker 123 carries; CBS and ESPN’s aggregate projection only gives him 74. Given Barkley’s health issues, though, BDF’s figures should pass the smell test. The real problem here is that most of Booker’s value will likely come early on in the season, as the Giants ease Saquon back into action. It’s likely that Booker could tail off by the time bye weeks come around, which is probably when you’d need him most. That being said, Saquon’s a ticking time bomb to get hurt again, making Booker the quintessential handcuff.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALULE. Booker’s probably not worth drafting if you didn’t pick Saquon… But if you did pick Saquon, there’s a real case to be made that Booker is a must have to stash away on the bench.

KENNY GOLLADAY (BDF Rank: WR37; ADP: WR22)

Kenny Golladay’s fantasy value has “fool’s gold” written all over it. For starters, WRs changing teams generally tend to decline. Secondly, as mentioned earlier, the QB drop-off Golladay will experience going from Matthew Stafford to Daniel Jones is significant, to say the least. This isn’t a volume guy who will just gobble up looks regardless of the system, either; he relies on his big play ability to be the fantasy stud fans think they’re drafting. Without a gunslinger QB like Staff, that ability gets sorely mitigated.

 BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. It’s too bad because it’s really not Golladay’s fault. Jones just craters the upside of everyone around him. Golladay is a strong fade this year.

STERLING SHEPARD (BDF Rank: WR63; ADP: WR72)

Sterling continues to be a high volume, low upside play, making him a prime streaming candidate for bye weeks. Extrapolating his career targets per game numbers to a 17 game season would give him 123 targets! Of course, there’s a catch – the dude can’t stay on the field to save his life. He’s missed 15 games the last 4 years. No big season enders, just little nagging bugaboos that test fantasy owners’ sanity. When he’s actually healthy though, he plays his role to a T.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. It’s hard to rave too much about a guy who really doesn’t have much upside. Shepard won’t win you many weeks, but he’s good for his consistent 12-ish points and probably won’t sink you, either. Snag him if he’s on the waiver wire.

DARIUS SLAYTON (BDF Rank: WR81; ADP: WR82)

Slayton can try mimicking receivers like Crowder/Beasley and feast in the slot. Unfortunately, his catch percentage is just absurdly poor (57.1% in ’19, 52.1% last year). Jones certainly shares some of the blame there, but with 2 big names in town, there just aren’t enough looks to compensate.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Everyone seems to agree that Slayton’s the guy who’ll fall off in this offense. Not that he was Jerry Rice to begin with (WR54 last year), but WR54 at least gets you on a roster. Can’t say the same for a guy in the WR80’s.

KADARIUS TONEY (BDF Rank: WR79; ADP: WR57)

The unkempt masses are buying heavily into Toney’s senior year at Florida, but it can’t be ignored that he was essentially a one-hit wonder. It’s not all his fault; he was deployed as a utility player in his first 3 years… it just doesn’t change the fact that he only has 1 year of production on his resume. Perhaps people see the next Percy Harvin, but Percy had 3 years of college production. On top of that, Toney wasn’t nearly as productive as a runner. He’ll have to earn his salt on his receiving merit, and as a rookie with a brutal QB… Well, let’s just say it’s not a great combo.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. Toney has the tangibles, but there’s just too much going against him, at least for this year. Maybe a thinner depth chart down the road opens things up for him, but he’s a fade for now.

EVAN ENGRAM (BDF Rank: TE18; ADP: TE11)

Engram needed 109 targets just to get to TE15 last year, and now he has to share those targets with Kenny Golladay and a (hopefully) healthy Saquon Barkley. His only season with over 7 yards/target was in 2018 with Eli Manning at QB. Since his rookie year, he has just 8 TDs in 35 games, sorely capping his ceiling. At best, he’s the 3rd receiving option (possibly 4th with Shepard) in a Giants offense with terrible QB play. Couple his low efficiency with declining looks, and it’s a fade-palooza.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. Don’t fall prey to the name brand that’s propping up this ADP. Engram’s far more in line with the rest of the non-descript, TE2 shmucks than many would care to believe. He certainly shouldn’t be starting, and as TE2s are a dime a dozen, it’s worth asking if he should be on a roster at all.