DALLAS COWBOYS

Photo Credit: Dallas Cowboys

OVERVIEW

Following an injury plagued 2020, the Dallas Cowboys enter this season with renewed optimism for an NFC East crown. Dallas is in prime position to win games and put up some huge fantasy numbers, particularly in the passing game, where returning QB Dak Prescott will be welcomed with open arms. Starting Tackles Tyron Smith and La’el Collins also return after missing essentially all of 2020. The rejuvenated line should provide Dak some much needed protection, and open things up for Ezekiel Elliott in the running game. While the ‘Boys boast one of the most talented offenses in the league, their lackluster defense is currently holding them back from Superbowl contention.

DAK PRESCOTT (BDF Rank: QB4; ADP: QB7)

After suffering a gruesome compound fracture in 2020, Dak Prescott returns to lead the Silver and Blue this year. The combination of playing from behind for most of the season and Dak’s usual stellar efficiency led to some pretty eye-popping results – in fact, Prescott was on pace to shatter the single season passing yard record prior to succumbing to injury. While this incredible pace is likely to regress, Dak should once again be among the league’s passing yard leaders, and will likely flirt with 5,000 yards. With that being said, a large part of Dak’s fantasy value comes from his remarkable red zone rushing numbers. The Cowboys may decide to reign him in after suffering such a brutal injury.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. We love Dak this season, but can’t condone his current ADP. You’re better off strengthening other positions in this area of the draft.

EZEKIEL ELLIOT (BDF Rank: RB10; ADP: RB7)

Short of a season ending injury, Ezekiel Elliott had pretty much everything possible go wrong for him in 2020. Zeke struggled with fumbles, drops, and inefficiency while the team around him crumbled due to injury. Despite all that, Elliott still finished the season as a borderline RB1 due to his high volume workload. 2021 should see Zeke eat again with a healthy workload in an elite offense. The Cowboys would be wise to get every last penny out of Elliott’s massive contract, and that spells fantasy success for the sixth-year RB.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Our statistical model says that Zeke is being slightly over-drafted. However, three of the RBs we have ranked ahead of Elliott are being drafted more than ten spots later. We do not condone reaching more than a few spots above ADP and we suggest having the strongest RB room possible leaving your draft. As such, we think Zeke is a fair value at his current ADP. You will be hard pressed to find a better combination of health, workload, and touchdown potential in the mid-late first round.

TONY POLLARD (BDF Rank: RB45; ADP: RB43)

We got a glimpse of Pollard’s potential last year when Ezekiel Elliott missed his first career game due to injury. Pollard took the backfield reigns and went for 132 total yards and 31.2 PPR points. Pollard is more explosive and efficient than Zeke at this point in their careers, but that may not matter. Elliott has investment, experience, and health on his side. Pollard is an RB1 if Zeke ever goes down, but until then he’s nothing more than a high-end handcuff.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Pollard is being drafted close enough to our ranking that we are comfortable giving the green light.

AMARI COOPER (BDF Rank: WR13; ADP: WR14)

Cooper was a top five fantasy receiver through Week 4 before receiving a major downgrade at QB to Andy Dalton. It is evident that Cooper has a special rapport with Dak Prescott. Since its inception, the Dak-Cooper connection has been among the best in the league. Cooper is averaging an impressive 15.63 PPR PPG since joining the Cowboys. Limit the sample to Dak Prescott starts, and Cooper’s average PPR points rises to 16.49. That would have been good for WR13 last year on a per game basis.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Cooper is never going to break any target records, but his efficiency and positioning in an elite offense make him worth the price tag.

CEEDEE LAMB (BDF Rank: WR22; ADP: 18)

Lamb was a top 12 fantasy receiver before the devastating injury to Dak Prescott in Week 5. Noticing a trend yet? While it’s unlikely that he maintains that scorching pace in 2021, Lamb is positioned well to put up strong numbers in his sophomore campaign. Even as the 1B to Cooper’s 1A, Lamb was able to garner 7+ targets in ten games. In an offense of this caliber, that’s enough to be a productive fantasy asset. Lamb may have to wait until 2022 for his big breakout year, but he should see enough work to be an upside WR2/3 this season.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. Lamb is being drafted just a touch too high for our liking. Lamb should put up strong numbers, but there are just too many mouths to feed in Dallas to justify his current ADP.

MICHAEL GALLUP (BDF Rank: WR39; ADP: WR46)

Last year, our model predicted Gallup as a borderline WR1 and an absolute steal at his sixth round ADP. We got burned. We can hardly blame the injury to Dak Prescott either, as Gallup was actually more productive after Prescott went down (5.6 targets/game vs. 7 targets/game). In reality, CeeDee Lamb was better than expected as a rookie and there were just too many mouths to feed in this offense. That being said, Gallup was still able to put together a rock solid season and finish as the WR38 in PPR. There’s no reason to think he can’t repeat similar production this year.

BDF Suggestion – BUY.  This ADP may be a case of spurned 2020 Gallup owners overcorrecting. This offense is good enough to support three fantasy relevant WRs and we think Gallup is a fine late round pick.

DALTON SCHULTZ/BLAKE JARWIN (BDF Rank: TE23/TE27; ADP: TE30/TE26)

This is a tough combination to project. Schultz filled in admirably (TE11 finish) after Jarwin went down with a Week 1 ACL tear, but it remains to be seen how the targets will be split up with both players healthy. We do not anticipate the Cowboys rolling out many two TE sets with so many marquee players at WR and RB. That means somebody has to go, but at this point, it’s a guessing game as to whom. We are currently splitting the difference.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Both Schultz and Jarwin are currently going undrafted. We believe its best left that way. Find a player with better opportunity metrics if you are looking at late round TEs.