PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Photo Credit: Philadelphia Eagles
OVERVIEW
The Eagles entered full rebuild mode in 2020, benching former second overall pick Carson Wentz in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts. This offseason, the Birds shipped Wentz off to Indianapolis and appear to be committed to Hurts (at least for the short term). The team also appears to be turning over it’s receiving corps as well, investing heavy draft capital in Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith. Zach Ertz has been the subject of many trade rumors this spring, and it appears he may have played his last game as an Eagle. Finally, the team parted ways with Head Coach Doug Pederson in favor of Nick Sirianni. Despite all the changes, the Eagles will need a massive year two jump from Jalen Hurts in order to compete for a playoff spot.
JALEN HURTS (BDF Rank: QB19; ADP: QB9)
The erratic play of Carson Wentz allowed Hurts to take over the team much sooner than anticipated. Hurts took the reins in Week 13 and never looked back, starting the Eagles’ last four games. Though his passing was sub-par, Hurts evidently did enough to earn a second chance. We’ve seen running QBs have tremendous fantasy success in recent years and Hurts definitely has that type of potential. Rushing yards are a fantasy cheat code for QBs, since a rushing yard is worth 2.5x a passing yard. Hurts ran for 60+ yards in three of his four starts, which gives him a nice weekly floor, but the sophomore signal caller will need to clean up his passing numbers in order to keep his job and ascend to fantasy stardom. Hurts only completed 52% of this passes last year and posted a dismal 41.0 QBR. Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens are both capable backups and could push Hurts out of a job if he can’t run the offense effectively.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. We recognize Hurts has a high ceiling, but there is too much uncertainty to draft him over proven commodities like Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, and Ryan Tannehill.
MILES SANDERS (BDF Rank: RB28; ADP: RB19)
Sanders’ first two years in the league have been a bit of a disappointment from a fantasy perspective. It’s not entirely Sanders’ fault, he just hasn’t been used in a true feature role despite having the talent to be a three down back. Unfortunately, it looks like more of the same is in store for Sanders in 2021. The Eagles added Kenneth Gainwell and Kerryon Johnson via the draft and free agency, respectively, signalling that they still do not view Sanders as a bell cow. Boston Scott is also still around to siphon change of pace touches. Unless one or more of the RBs behind him gets cut, it’s looking like Sanders will be stuck in a committee again this upcoming season.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. We want nothing to do with Sanders at his current ADP. Go with a better RB option or WR in this range.
BOSTON SCOTT/KERRYON JOHNSON (BDF Rank: RB67/RB62; ADP: RB70/81)
Scott and Johnson will be splitting backup roles behind Miles Sanders in what is likely to be some sort of committee. Scott is a change of pace back who provided solid fantasy production when Sanders missed time in 2020. Johnson was cut by the Lions after busting in Detroit due to injuries and general ineffectiveness. One area Kerryon is proficient in is pass-blocking, a facet of the game that both Scott and Sanders struggle in. This could lead to Johnson stealing valuable passing down work.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Neither Scott nor Johnson are really draftable at this point. Leave them both on the waiver wire until something happens to Miles Sanders.
JALEN REAGOR (BDF Rank: WR59; ADP: WR56)
Injuries got Reagor’s career off to a slow start in 2021, as he missed five games in September and October. Upon his return, Reagor flashed some of the potential that lead to him being picked in the first round of last year’s draft. Reagor developed into one of the team’s main options down the stretch, drawing 5+ targets in six games. DeVonta Smith will shake up the target tree in Philadelphia, but Reagor’s draft pedigree and respectable performance last season make him a safe bet to start alongside the talented rookie.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Reagor is a fine late round pick in deeper leagues. He brings additional upside if he can carve out a big role in this offense.
DEVONTA SMITH (BDF Rank: WR61; ADP: WR39)
It’s hard to have picked a better landing spot for Smith from a potential targets perspective. The Eagles have one of the worst receiving corps in the league, and there is a realistic scenario where Smith draws 125 targets in his rookie year. What he does with said targets is another story. Jalen Hurts was one of the least efficient passers in the league, so Nick Sirianni is going to have to find creative ways to get Smith involved. The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner should get first crack at being the alpha dog, but that may not mean much in this offense.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. Smith has year one upside, but his draft price is entirely too high for our liking. Jalen Hurts would need to take a big step forward as a passer this year to justify Smith’s current ADP.
GREG WARD/TRAVIS FULGHAM (BDF Rank: WR103/WR111; ADP: NA/WR95)
Ward and Fulgham stepped into big roles last year when the Eagles pass catchers were decimated with injuries. That is no longer the case, as the Birds now have Reagor, Ertz (at least for the time being), and Goedert all healthy. The addition of Smith in the draft obviously doesn’t help either.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Both players should be left on waivers until further notice. Fifth/sixth options in bad passing offenses don’t need to be rostered in any league format.
DALLAS GOEDERT (BDF RANK: TE19; ADP: TE9)
Not too long ago the prospect of Goedert taking over a full-time role without Ertz would have excited us. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case. With two recent first round picks invested in WRs, the Eagles’ TE slot is no longer the great target magnet it once was. Goedert would see additional targets if the Eagles move Ertz, but it may not be enough to offset Jalen Hurts’ lack of efficiency as a passer. Goedert’s yards per target fell from 8.24 with Carson Wentz under center to 7.75 when Hurts took over. The general ineptitude of the offense may also hurt Goedert’s touchdown metrics, an important area of production at a position where receptions and yardage are scarce.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. Goedert’s talent is undeniable, but there are too many factors working against him to take him at his ADP. If you’re eyeing up Goedert as your starting TE, we suggest waiting for a cheaper option and strengthening the rest of your roster.
ZACH ERTZ (BDF Rank: TE32; ADP: TE18)
There is a good chance Ertz gets moved before Week 1, so we’ll keep this short and sweet. If he remains on the Eagles, Ertz is nothing more than a thorn in the side of Dallas Goedert owners. If Ertz does in fact get dealt, a lot will depend on his landing spot. Ertz can still be a fantasy factor with a high target share in a good offense.
BDF Suggestion – TBD. We will wait to see where Ertz lands before offering a verdict.