MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Photo Credit: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikes will trot out the best two-headed monster in the game after Henry-AJB. Dalvin became the first non-Henry RB since 2016 to eclipse 1500 rushing yards. He’s a true workhorse and a virtual lock for the 2nd most carries. Jefferson, the steal of fantasy last year, was the only WR to rank top 5 in both yards and yards per target. His absurd efficiency will regress a bit, but he’ll see a volume bump considering he didn’t start the first two games last year. Thielen, meanwhile, is trending the other way. Buoyed by 14 TDs, he was the first WR since 2017 to finish top 10 with under 1000 yards. He’s always scored at a solid rate and should do so again, but his WR1 days are over. Kirk will give you his standard QB2 performance, then it’s pretty downhill from there.

KIRK COUSINS (BDF Rank: QB20; ADP: QB17)

Kirk ranked 11th last year with only about a point and a half more per game than BDF’s 2021 projection. It’s the nature of an ever-saturated QB position. 11 QBs broke 300 points, and Dak would’ve made 12. There are two primary culprits for the predicted decline: TD% and completion% (more granularly, Jefferson’s catch%). Though his elite yards per catch remains unscathed, BDF has him regressing from 70.4% catch% to 62%. That alone knocks Kirk’s completion% down from 67.6% to 64.6%. As for the TDs, BDF essentially regresses him to his career rate after he finished 5th last year. Because let’s be honest: Kirk Cousins shouldn’t be finishing top 5 in anything.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. To be a QB1 when your RB runs 320+ times, you have to have Tannehill-like efficiency. Cousins doesn’t have it on any sort of sustainable level. Even in his last season in Miami in 2018, Tannehill had a higher TD% than any Cousins season besides last year. Kirk’s a game manager who’s fortunate to have an elite WR and a TD-guzzler at his disposal.

DALVIN COOK (BDF Rank: RB3; ADP: RB2)

The public having Dalvin ahead of Henry is a bit questionable. Cook did inch out Henry for more scrimmage yards per game in addition to the reception disparity. However, Henry’s gargantuan scoring clip is far more sustainable given he’s in an offense that scored 4 more points per game, with a QB who BDF ranks 14 spots higher. That all said, Dalvin’s in line for another monster season. He’s in a class of two guys who thrive with YPC’s in the 5’s under breakneck workloads, and he makes his mark in the pass game too. That’s his one edge on Henry: not even game scripts can compromise his volume. He’s the most well-rounded back in the league and should absolutely go no lower than third overall.

 BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. The fade is only in the sense that he’s not better than Henry. His only other realistic competition for that #3 spot would be Kamara, but he’d need another 6-TD game to keep pace. The only path to Dalvin underachieving is injury. If he’s on the field, he’s going to be dynamic.

ALEXANDER MATTISON (BDF Rank: RB55; ADP: RB46)

We haven’t gotten nearly the Mattison sample size we would’ve thought given Dalvin’s injury history at the time he was drafted. Dalvin’s only missed four games in those two seasons, and Mattison himself missed two of those games. It was week 17, but he did go off for 30 points against the Lions. Mattison’s maintained a 4.5 YPC in consecutive seasons on non-negligible rushing loads. Unfortunately, the lack of opportunity makes it difficult for him to return any sort of value in a non-handcuff scenario. He’s talented enough and his role is clear enough where if you’ve taken Dalvin, he’s a borderline must-have. Otherwise though, best to steer clear.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. Mattison’s overall ADP is 153. Unless someone in your league’s making a spite pick, you can essentially wait till the end and still get him. If you go this route, use a late rounder on a sleeper as opposed to another handcuff, so as not to run into bye week trouble.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON (BDF Rank: WR4; ADP: WR7)

BDF has Jefferson leading the league in receiving yards! He ranked 4th last year, and at his pace he would’ve led the league with just 12 more targets, still 29 fewer than Diggs. The public doesn’t think he’ll improve on last year. It’s hard not to see JJ getting a bump just from getting two extra starts (he got just 6 targets in those first two games last year). Also, his 7 TDs are a very sustainable mark for an elite WR to maintain. He could not have a more favorable WR depth chart, too; after Thielen, it’s Chad Beebe and a whole bunch of jabronis. All signs point towards a volume increase that’ll lunge JJ into the top 5.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. There’s also the possibility that JJ busts out a double-digit TD season, on top of his projected receiving marks. Contrastingly, Brown and Metcalf, both of whom are around JJ’s ADP, would be hard-pressed to outperform the lofty TD expectations BDF has for them. Not that JJ’s a better pick than those guys. However, he’s probably more likely to match his BDF ranking, and he may still have untapped potential.

ADAM THIELEN (BDF Rank: WR18; ADP: WR19)

Despite being a big name with a fading role, Thielen’s actually a tad undervalued by the public. His 14 TD 2020 season, while obviously an outlier, isn’t quite the anomaly the masses may believe. For two seasons running, nearly 1 of 5 catches has been a TD for Thielen (20 of 104). Even in his 2019 nadir, he still maintained that pace (6 TDs on 30 grabs). JJ can run hog-wild with double digit targets a game, and Thielen’s still efficient enough to be a low-end WR2. Also, as in JJ’s case, no one’s knocking down the door to steal looks. 2017/2018 Thielen ain’t walking through the door, but don’t write him off just yet.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. The caveat with Thielen is there’s no real upside. He’s not going to supersede JJ, and he can’t score much more than he already does. That said, it’s also highly unlikely he busts considering he’s getting 100ish targets handed to him on a silver platter. Pluck Thielen if you want to safely fill a flex spot, but don’t expect a home run hitter.

CHAD BEEBE (BDF Rank: WR106; ADP: WR187)

Someone must be the third WR, and sadly enough Beebe’s the best they’ve got. Dalvin’s the real third receiving option, especially with Irv Smith now on the shelf for a bit. Not only was Beebe an undrafted free agent, his college career high was 417 yards at…Northern Illinois. He has no pedigree whatsoever. Even in a well-defined role, Beebe offers nothing.

BDF Suggestion – BUY. Beebe has value relative to his ADP simply because he’ll inevitably get a few targets. He’s a spare part, and those players shouldn’t be considered for fantasy purposes. Even if Jefferson or Thielen gets hurt, Beebe’s a desperation waiver play.