DETROIT LIONS

Photo Credit: Detroit Lions

Historically, the Lions have at least been a fun bad team. Calvin may be the best player of all time to never win a playoff game, and even after he left, Staff still finished 7th the next two seasons and has been a solid QB2 thereafter. Now it’s up to Goff, whose competence was already questionable even in McVay’s offense. He’ll also easily have the worst receiving corps of his career; BDF had Perriman as their leading WR…finishing 70th… And he didn’t even make the team! The silver lining is Goff has two great safety valves in Swift and Hockenson. The game scripts generated by their God-awful defense will make those two fantasy gems, but the rest of this offense is barren.

JARED GOFF (BDF Rank: QB29; ADP: QB29)

Everyone agrees Goff ain’t it, chief. He already had back-to-back declining seasons in LA, falling from 7th to 13th to 18th. BDF slates him for the 3rd most pass attempts thanks to their turnstile D, but his projected 6.6 yards/attempt is worse than every starting QB but Hurts, Cam, Fields, and Big Ben. His air yardage is miserable too. Last year he ranked 37th out of 44 QBs with 100+ pass attempts in air yards/attempt. At least those other QBs have different means of putting up points: Hurts/Cam/Fields with their rushing, and Ben with favorable TD-Int ratios. Goff has zero rushing presence, and BDF has his TD-Int at 24th while Ben’s is 5th. There’s just no upside here.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. It’s pretty sad that Goff ranks this low considering the volume he’s going to get. He’s also projected for the 6th most interceptions. He could rack up even more attempts if he just gave the ball away less! Yes, the receiving corps is the worst in the league hands down, but Goff’s not even close to a guy who’s capable of elevating them.

DEANDRE SWIFT (BDF Rank: RB5; ADP: RB16)

Swift is one of the best BDF values on the market. He missed 3 games last year, but was still an RB2. Had he maintained his per-game pace, he would’ve finished as an RB1 even if he’d played just 15 games. Then there’s the 208 carries that’re up for grabs with AP and Kerryon jumping ship. BDF essentially has Jamaal Williams getting AP’s volume and Swift absorbing Kerryon’s 52 carries. Rushing-wise it’s roughly a timeshare, but Swift stands out with his 90 projected targets, 5th most among RBs. Simply based on last year’s performance combined with better health, Swift should be an RB1. Factor in the downsizing from a backfield of three RBs to two, and Swift Season is in full effect.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. Swift can generally be had in the late 3rd round. The RB1s rarely make it past the mid-2nd. It’s harder for higher picks to return significant value, but Swift’s as good a bet as anyone to do that this year. Even reaching a bit in the early 3rd, he’s not a bad pick. He should absolutely be first on your queue for your 3rd rounder.

JAMAAL WILLIAMS (BDF Rank: RB25; ADP: RB42)

Williams finished 38th last year, so the ADP’s more indicative of his 2020 situation. Swift will be leaned upon heavily, but he’s not going to get Aaron Jones level usage. There’s also no more AJ Dillon lurking for touches. The Lions o-line paved some solid room to run in 2020. Swift finished 7th among RBs in yards before contact per carry. Add Sewell to the mix at right tackle, and that only figures to improve. Factor all those things together, and BDF has Williams at a career high 4.6 yards per carry. Even as a second fiddle, Williams should have more than enough volume left over to return great value.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. Swift’s rushing ceiling and a shallow RB depth chart give Williams a massive boost. The game scripts will allow him to have a decent passing workload even playing second fiddle to Swift. Williams has everything going for him and should go well ahead of ADP.

TYRELL WILLIAMS (BDF Rank: WR73; ADP: WR82)

Williams blew out his labrum last year a week before the season started. In 2019, he finished 47th, making him roster-able. He’s not the burner Perriman is (might have been?), but he still capitalizes on his chances, cracking 10 yards per target three seasons in a row. Regardless, he’ll be lucky to crack a lineup this year, even with Perriman gone.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. Williams beats his ADP on the back of great efficiency, even after getting nerfed by Goff. Even ranking in the 70s, however, he’s worth monitoring. The target bump after cutting Perriman makes him an intriguing waiver option.

QUINTEZ CEPHUS (BDF Rank: WR93; ADP: WR116)

Stop me if I sound like a broken record: efficient guy, neutered by a bumbling QB. Cephus’ 17.5 yards per catch ranked 6th among everyone with at least 20 grabs last year. He once looked like a nice find as a 5th round pick in 2020, but going from Stafford to Goff is a hell of a comedown. Despite being projected for almost 2 more targets per game, BDF barely has him ahead of last year, when he finished 102nd while missing 3 games.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. Cephus’ anonymity undoubtedly helps him return value. No one remembers the 5th leading receiver on one of the league’s worst teams. Now that he’ll get targets just by showing up, he’s a nice play in deeper leagues.

GERONIMO ALLISON (BDF Rank: WR107; ADP: N/A)

BDF has Geronimo beating out Amon-Ra St. Brown for the slot gig. St. Brown had 1.5 good seasons before declaring as an underclassman, which is always a tougher road. Geronimo sat out for COVID last year and was a non-factor in 2019. However, in 2018 he racked up 289 yards in the first 4 games before a concussion and a groin injury abruptly cut his season short. We’re talking 3 years ago, but at least there’s a sliver of success at the pro level (work with us here).

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Unlike the other three, Geronimo moves at a snail’s pace (11.7 career yards per catch). You could double his targets and BDF would still have him just 39th, so it’s not like we’re talking about a bunch of untapped potential.

T.J. HOCKENSON (BDF Rank: TE4; ADP: TE6)

Based on ADP, Hockenson, Pitts, and Andrews have all settled into that next tier of tight ends after the big three. BDF projects Hock for the third most targets for TEs, even more than Kittle, and the second most TDs. Goff simply won’t be able to rely on these receivers, and he’ll need Hock in all areas of the field, especially the red zone. He narrowly edges out Andrews and Pitts by over a point and a half per game. Andrews’ overall ADP is 10 slots higher, making for decent odds Hock returns more value. The Ravens at least made efforts to bolster their receiving core. The last three years they’ve spent two firsts, two thirds, and a fourth at the position. Meanwhile, the Lions’ highest ranked BDF receiver was 70th, and he just got cut. Andrews is more explosive, but Hock’s volume makes him a pretty good bet to finish top five.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. If the Niners and Ravens had defenses like the Lions, Kittle and Andrews would skyrocket. Hock’s efficiency is actually quite poor. BDF has him at just 6.5 yards/target, 33rd out of 42 TEs. However, he’s got the perfect confluence of an epically bad defense, receivers who can’t get open, and a QB who couldn’t get them the ball even if they could.