BUFFALO BILLS

Photo Credit: Buffalo Bills

OVERVIEW

There wasn’t a QB-WR duo who exceeded expectations more than Allen and Diggs last year. In 2017/2018/2019, Diggs finished 19th/10th/24th; solid, but a far cry from the 20 fantasy points a game he’d drop in 2020. Meanwhile, Allen was already the #6 fantasy QB in 2019 thanks to his rushing, but his transformation into an elite gunslinger overnight was unprecedented. The offense at large, however, has some rough spots. Singletary and Moss will once again be sentenced to death by timeshare; BDF has them just 25 yards and 0.8 carries apart! Beasley’s a *spoiler alert* BDF darling this year, but the rest of the receivers are a bit in flux. Knox has been one of the league’s least impactful starting tight ends for two years now, and that doesn’t appear to be changing. It’s a top-heavy offense, but the two-headed monster and Beasley should deliver once again.

JOSH ALLEN (BDF Rank: QB4; ADP: QB2)

Allen was in elite company last year. He, Rodgers, and Mahomes all finished top 4, and their #1 WRs all finished top 3. Historically his 2020 stacked up against the elites, too. Only 4 QBs have ever topped 400 fantasy points in a season: Peyton (2013), Mahomes (2018), Lamar (2019), and Allen (2020). After skyrocketing from dead last in 2019 to 4th in completion percentage, his accuracy should regress a bit. For someone who throws deep as much as Allen does (he was 10th among starting QBs in intended air yards/attempt), 69% is tough to sustain. For context, of the 9 starters who threw longer per throw than Allen, Watson and Wilson were the only ones to even have a comp% ranking in the top half of the league. BDF still has him at 13th in comp%, which is still highly impressive given the depth of his throws. He probably won’t quite repeat 2020, but Allen should be a force once again.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. Though BDF has Lamar and Kyler ahead of Allen, they’re all only separated by 10 points. It’s hard to go wrong with any of them. Allen, unfortunately, bears the mark of the highest ADP, and thus should return the least value.

DEVIN SINGLETARY (BDF Rank: RB42; ADP: RB42)

Right on the money. Singletary had a strong 2019, finishing 32nd among RBs despite missing a quarter of the season and only getting double digit rushes in 7 of 12 games. Last year, however, his yards per carry sputtered by 0.7, and he only ranked one spot higher playing all 16 games. Unfortunately for Motor, the offense has changed a lot since the last time he was good, and those changes look to be permanent. The Bills had the 7th highest run play percentage in 2019, but that plummeted to 20th last season. Now that Allen’s proven himself as a legit franchise QB, they have no reason to revert to their pre-2020 level of rushing volume. That, plus Moss leeching carries, prevents Singletary from getting in any sort of real rhythm. Hence, BDF projects his yards per carry at 4.4, the same as 2020.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. For pick 115 overall like ADP has him, Singletary’s a fine value. However, there’s not much of a path to him returning a ton of value. Even if he takes over the backfield and regains his old efficiency like 2019, Allen’s still likely going to throw around 600 times. Take him as a bench stash but don’t expect fireworks.

ZACK MOSS (BDF Rank: RB38; ADP: RB37)

Again, almost exact! Moss and Singletary were the Spider-Man pointing meme last year, separated by just 1 rush attempt per game and 0.1 yards per carry. In Singletary’s case, we’ve seen the volume he can handle when his only competition for carries is the fossil of Frank Gore. Though he only started 8 games, he rushed 127 times in those 8 starts. Moss was a workhorse at Utah, but it’s still up in the air if he could handle a 200+ carry season in the pros, should Motor get hurt again. Given how close the timeshare will be, Moss has a solid floor, but he won’t have much value beyond the occasional stream.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Singletary’s at least somewhat present in the passing game; Moss got just 18 targets in 13 games. He just hasn’t done anything to prove that he would break out even with more opportunity. He’s a good bench option to complement a thin starting lineup, but that’s about it.

STEFON DIGGS (BDF Rank: WR3; ADP: WR3)

Diggs finally showed what he can do when his QB isn’t a glorified play action robot. After a high volume 2018 and a high efficiency 2019, Diggs combined them both to comfortably finish as fantasy’s third leading receiver in 2020 (he beat out Hopkins, who came in fourth, by over 40 points). Allen’s accuracy dip bumps his catch rate down a bit, but his targets and efficiency stay nearly the same. He was so far ahead of everyone but Adams and Hill that, even with the slight decline, BDF still has him in third. If you’re picking end of the first round and you can snag a back, Diggs is great value on the snake.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. When picking that high in the draft, you want reliability. Diggs is tough to beat in that department. He rarely misses time, he’s consistent game to game (he was the only player in the league with 6+ targets in every game), and he has relatively little competition outside of Beasley’s predetermined 100-ish looks. Even after his stock exploded, he’s still fair value.

COLE BEASLEY (BDF Rank: WR27; ADP: WR55)

It’s hard to say why ADP has Beasley barely being drafted. Either Allen would have to fall off a cliff, or they’d have to replace him in the slot, both of which seem highly unlikely. It’s not like last year was a fluke. He ranked 34th in 2019 as well, so even with pre-breakout Allen he crushes that ADP. It’s not even a stretch to say Beasley’s one of the most productive slot receivers in the league. With Edelman retiring, he bumps up another notch on that totem pole. This is one of the largest BDF-ADP gaps you’ll see, so hold out for value but don’t wait too long!

BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. You could reach on Beasley at least a couple rounds ahead of ADP and still make a killing. When is a receiver who’s that good of a bet to hit 1000 yards available that late? Don’t be the sucker who doesn’t capitalize.

GABRIEL DAVIS (BDF Rank: WR57; ADP: WR69)

Believe it or not, Davis was one of the most efficient receivers in fantasy last year. He netted 2.21 fantasy points per target, 10th among 87 receivers with 50+ targets. It’s even more impressive considering he did so despite catching just 56% of balls thrown his way. Of course, a TD every 5 grabs is an unsustainable pace. Yardage wise, though, BDF thinks he’ll maintain his explosive 17 yards per catch, and has him one spot shy of his 2020 finish. Davis ostensibly jumping to 3rd on the WR depth chart neutralizes the TD regression. The public’s pretty low on him, and Davis will almost assuredly be a bargain.

BDF Suggestion – BUY. Davis is efficient enough where he can play a relatively minor role in the offense and still put up some fantasy numbers. He’s very much feast or famine (even just looking at his starts, Davis had fewer than 20 yards 5 out of 11 times), but for a deep sleeper, that’s what you’re looking for.

EMMANUEL SANDERS (BDF Rank: WR83; ADP: WR64)

Sanders having a higher ADP than Davis is a bit of name brand manipulation. Davis was a rookie last year; unless Sanders blows them away, they have more to gain by letting his development continue than they do by force-feeding looks to a man in his mid-30’s who’s declined each of the last two seasons. Make no mistake – he’ll figure in just enough to be a nuisance and prevent Davis from being a true sleeper, but Manny’s days of fantasy relevancy are fading faster than Marty McFly’s folks in a family photo.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. For what it’s worth, BDF does think Sanders will be efficient. Thanks to Allen’s rocket arm, his projected yards per catch shoots up to 14.5, which would be his best since 2015 (with a noodle-armed Peyton, of all QBs). Ultimately, Manny being fourth in the pecking order is too much to overcome.

DAWSON KNOX (BDF Rank: TE24; ADP: TE35)

Knox did have a rough go of it last year, with a concussion and COVID both before week 7. With how infrequently the Bills use tight ends, he didn’t qualify for rate stats in 2019 even though he missed just 1 game… Still, his 7.8 yards/target would’ve ranked 13th at the position. The margins, of course, are thin for backup tight ends; with just 10 more targets, Knox’s BDF projection would vault to 17th, where he’d be borderline draftable. However, until we see evidence that the Bills are making TE any sort of priority, Knox is relegated to waiver wire darling.

BDF Suggestion – BUY. It’d be great to see Knox get traded so he could really spread his wings. It’s tough being a tight end ranked below 20; if you do somehow find your way into a lineup, you’re someone’s third choice. Knox can play, but this offense isn’t for him.