NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Photo Credit: New England Patriots

Ah, the Patriots… One of the league’s whackiest (read: bad) fantasy offenses gets even whackier in 2021. Right now, we predict Cam Newton will win the starting QB job, but everything after that is a mess. Generally speaking, New England’s RB/WRs barely belong on a fantasy roster. Meanwhile the Pats’ brass was convinced Cam needed his Greg Olsen, so they went out and got two! Henry and Smith will predictably cannibalize each other, though we still rank Henry as a low-end TE1. The silver lining is that Cam should have a more productive fantasy season, simply by virtue of augmented volume. The Pats essentially sheltered him from passing work after coming back from COVID; he threw 30+ passes just three times in those 12 games. Even once that ADP settles, Cam should be solid value. With the rest of this offense, it’s hard to say the same.

CAM NEWTON (BDF Rank: QB11; ADP: QB27)

BDF has quite an interesting outlook for Cam. His attempts shoot all the way up to 603 this year, though at 17th it’s around average for QBs in a 17-game season. He’s also slotted for 31 passing TDs; even with the increased attempts, the 5.1% TD% would match his 2018 Carolina season. It’s not unreasonable to think Cam can hit a mark he reached 3 years ago… But here’s the catch; Cam’s projected 6.5 yards/attempt ranks 30th, ahead of only Fields and Big Ben. Cam the runner, though, is a different story. BDF has him finishing 3rd in QB rushing yards and 4th in QB rushing TDs. It’s a testament to the value of a rushing QB that, all else largely being equal, Cam’s slated to finish 11th and Roethlisberger 24th. For your backup QB, that’s pretty tough to beat.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. Cam’s the peculiar instance where a name-brand guy becomes undervalued. Without the general 2020 craziness attached, it’s not a huge ask for a Josh McDaniels-coached QB to rank in the 20-25 range as a passer. There’s no sugar-coating the yardage, but a 30+ TD passer who runs like Cam is a hot fantasy commodity.

DAMIEN HARRIS (BDF Rank: RB46; ADP: RB35)

The ADP sort of makes sense. If Harris only misses a couple games, his pace brings him from 54th into that RB4 range. However, that logic would assume he’s getting 233 carries this year. That requires Sony Michel to all but fall out of the rotation, and it looks like he’ll be lingering at least one more year. BDF’s projected split between Harris and Michel almost perfectly mirrors last year’s: 62% vs 63% (Michel also played 1 less game). Above all, though, there’s two main reasons Harris won’t reach his potential, and they’re Cam Newton and James White. Cam vultures would-be TDs, and White eats up hypothetical receiving work. It’s too bad because Harris truly is a great runner; BDF has him finishing 14th in yards per carry. However, it’s just not an offense conducive to fantasy success.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. While players like James White thank the Big Man Upstairs PPR exists, the Harris’s of the world get the short end of that zero-sum game. It’s worth mentioning Burkhead’s gone, so if Michel gets hurt Harris could have a field day. He’s the kind of player you’d stash and hope for a breakout, but the ADP kind of negates that as an advisable strategy.

SONY MICHEL (BDF Rank: RB53; ADP: RB62)

Speaking of zero-sum games! Michel’s rise in ADP is more or less the same drop as Harris’. He’s not long removed from being a workhorse, with 456 carries in two seasons. Obviously the hierarchy has changed, but the Pats still liked him enough to give him a decent timeshare last year, even as Harris was excelling. Just don’t fall too hard for his 5.7 YPC; a 9 carry, 117-yard palooza will certainly help that when you only run 79 times. Oh, and know going in that you’re getting zero upside whatsoever. Michel going down would vault Harris into a new tier, but the converse isn’t really true given Michel’s generally middling efficiency. If you need a locked-in 9 points bark up this tree, but even as a season-long value there are way better options.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. Michel defines replacement level in fantasy. Unlike his ADP contemporaries, though, he rarely strays away from replacement level, in either direction. That’s not what you want out of players who’re barely scraping their way onto your roster anyway. He’s more valuable on teams whose benches are pretty barren.

JAMES WHITE (BDF Rank: RB49; ADP: RB51)

Lastly, we have James White; not exactly the Giants’ Earth Wind & Fire backfield circa 2008. It doesn’t help that Cam rarely checks down, and the two tight ends will also command more of the short yardage looks that White would normally monopolize. BDF projects a fourth declining season in a row, from 7th in 2018 to 18th in 2019 to 42nd last season, and now 49th. His projected target share is barely half what it was in ’18. Quite the fall from grace.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. White lived the dream as a scatback. Now he’s back to a fantasy pumpkin. Still, we’d take him any day over Michel. He’s a good game script away from going off, while Sony must rely on 13-YPC games to stay relevant. He’s good enough to be rostered, but anything above that ADP and he’s a luxury pick.

JAKOBI MEYERS (BDF Rank: WR64; ADP: WR79)

Ladies and gentlemen: your New England Patriots number one receiver!! Don’t all jump at once! Meyers finished 53rd in 2020, and that’s without having to compete with two big name tight ends. Despite that, Meyers can still be valuable. In his 9 starts last year he averaged 7.6 targets, 5.4 catches and 68 yards. The tight ends will mitigate those numbers, but Cam throwing more on the whole should offset them a bit. It’s also highly unlikely Meyers literally does not score again. The optics are rough: a receiver with a QB who’s limited as a passer, falling from first to third in the pecking order. Meyers might not be worth owning fulltime, but he’s good enough to surprise.

BDF Suggestion – BUY. There’s something to be said about being the number one WR on any team. Meyers has baked-in fantasy relevancy solely based on the real-life depth chart. It’s a far less than ideal situation to be that number one, but Meyers should still return value.

NELSON AGHOLOR (BDF Rank: WR87; ADP: WR61)

Now we dive into the real fantasy dregs of this roster. Of course, the public’s latching onto his fluky Raiders season, where his yards per catch was 6.3 yards higher than any other year. The entire rest of his career, Agholor has been the underachieving drop-aholic we all knew and jeered at until he left Philly. Take his 2019, for example. Only Geronimo Allison had a worse yards/target in the entire league among receivers. Agholor’s the biggest fade on this team, hands down.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. We’d buy Agholor’s 2020 more if his catch rate improved along with his yardage. It was still sub-60% though, which it’s been each of the last two seasons and four out of six for his career. He’s a near mortal lock to come crashing back to earth.

N’KEAL HARRY (BDF Rank: WR98; ADP: WR134)

It’s hard to read a ton into that ADP, considering Harry could still be traded. Regardless, it’s pretty clear Harry’s an immense bust, at least in New England. He finished third to last in WR yards/target in 2020, and would’ve been dead last in 2019 had he gotten enough targets to qualify. The Pats needs to move on, and so should you.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. If Harry’s ADP remains negligible, then sure, he’s a strong buy. Maybe a change of scenery fixes him, but until then he shouldn’t be sniffing your roster.

HUNTER HENRY (BDF Rank: TE8; ADP: TE14)

TE8 would be more in line with Henry’s 2019, where he only played 12 games but finished 8th in points per game. Even after a down year, BDF actually has him declining even more in terms of yardage per game. That shouldn’t be too much of a red flag, considering Jonnu could easily get just as many looks. However, Henry’s saving grace is that he profiles to be a goal line machine. He only got 8 targets inside the 10 last year, but 4 of them were TDs. Now that he’s not competing with the likes of Keenan Allen and Ekeler, he’ll have his run of the place. Cam will leech a few on the ground, but Henry’s the number one red zone threat. BDF has him finishing 5th among TEs in TDs, which thrusts him into TE1 territory.

BDF Suggestion – BUY. This year, Henry’s not a vulture, but he’s on the vulture spectrum. It’s a distorted version of him, driven by his team’s lust for multiple expensive tight ends. Nonetheless, snag Henry as a late starter, but be ready for the headache of waiting for him to find the end zone to justify his value.

JONNU SMITH (BDF Rank: TE15; ADP: TE16)

Even with an 8 TD 2020, Smith only finished 16th. The good news is that he should have his biggest workload yet this year. While his own position may be a timeshare, AJ Brown and Corey Davis got 198 targets on their own with the Titans and aren’t in the picture now. BDF actually projects Smith to edge out Henry in targets, 91 to 87. The volume bump should smooth out the inevitable TD crash, leaving him right around where he was last year.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Smith seems to get a lot of hype for a guy who’s never topped 30 yards per game. His fantasy relevance will be on life support; but Mr. Newton will refuse to pull the plug.