SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Photo Credit: San Francisco 49ers

OVERVIEW

Last season was a comedy of misfortune for the Niners. Not a single non-Kittle player finished in the top 30 at his position (yes, including QB!). Injury and attrition certainly played a role, but there are some red flags that carry over to this year, including a chaotic backfield where no RB has surpassed 153 carries or 814 yards three years running, and a receiving corps that hasn’t seen a 1,000 yard receiver since Anquan Boldin in 2014. Given the Niners aspirations as a Super Bowl team, Lance likely won’t start out of the gate, as he’ll have to cement himself as a truly better option than Garoppolo. Oddsmakers slate Jimmy G at around a 70% to start, and BDF concurs. Kittle season should return, but a mediocre QB, a coach all in on RBBC, and a WR group hurting for talent is a rough threesome for an offense to overcome.

JIMMY GAROPPOLO (BDF Rank: QB28; ADP: QB33)

As long as Shanahan keeps a tight leash on Jimmy G, the Niners QB will have a painfully low ceiling. In San Francisco, Garoppolo’s 16-game pace is only 456 passes. For context, even had he played all 16 games in 2020 he would’ve ranked just 19th in attempts. His volume won’t be quite that low this time with Kittle and Aiyuk together for a full season (they missed a combined 12 games last year), but at the end of the day, Shanahan’s commitment to supporting 3 RBs dooms any sort of upside for the QB.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. The term buy is used solely based on value here. Garoppolo shouldn’t be sniffing your lineup in 99% of instances, but if you’re in 2QB and hurting for a fill-in, you could do worse for a last minute waiver add.

RAHEEM MOSTERT (BDF Rank: RB24; ADP: RB29)

Mostert was top 10 in YPC among RBs last season (ok, he was 10th), and his 12.5 PPR PPG ranked top 25 (ok, he was 25th), but Jeff Wilson and even a sub-4 YPC  Jerick McKinnon perpetually lurked and syphoned carries. Mostert finds himself in a special sort of purgatory, a hyper-efficient player with virtually no upside; he and JK Dobbins should start a support group. BDF has him as a mid-level RB3, which is right where he finished when he played a full season in 2019 (26th), despite not technically starting a single game. Though the three backs aren’t too different, there is a pecking order, and as long as Mostert keeps busting out 5 yards a pop he’ll remain on top.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. Mostert’s efficiency simply makes it hard for him to finish much lower than this. He’s a very low maintenance fantasy player who doesn’t even require receiving work. Just know that he is what he is: a caged bird confined to carries in the low teens on a good day.

JEFF WILSON (BDF Rank: RB33; ADP: RB61)

Wilson might not be better than Mostert, but if you’re looking for a late-draft home run, this is your man. A pure vulture in 2019, Wilson became a mainstay in 2020, particularly down the stretch when he logged back-to-back 20+ carry games to end the year in Mostert’s absence. He stayed true to his roots with some strong vulturing, racking up 10 TDs in 12 games. However, he defied the conventional norm of a vulture with a healthy 4.8 YPC. Look for him to maintain that efficiency and to at least lead the backfield in TDs again. If he had Mostert’s workload, we’d be talking similarly about a solid RB3. Wilson falls a bit outside that range, but relative to ADP he’s a huge steal.

BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. Wilson is slightly worse than Mostert, but he’s being drafted like he’s a spare part. Being fantasy relevant in a committee requires making the most out of your touches. In terms of both yardage and scoring, no one on this roster does that better than Wilson. Buy the dip!

TREY SERMON (BDF Rank: RB50; ADP: RB34)

The public seems to have Wilson and Sermon confused! One has gone out and proven he can live up to his BDF rank, the other is merely a name a bunch of people happened to learn watching the college football playoffs. This isn’t to slander Sermon’s talent; MacKinnon deciding he needed to ring-chase before he turned 30 opened up a valuable spot in Shanahan’s three-pronged hydra. Sermon’s just the new guy and there’s two guys there who’re already pretty good, and thus won’t forfeit a ton of touches. Sermon’s good enough to stay fantasy relevant despite playing third banana, but he’s on the fringe.

BDF Suggestion – FADE. If you draft Sermon at that ADP, you’re expecting Wilson’s workload, and as long as Wilson plays like he has, you’re not getting it. Unless the dynamics of this backfield change, Sermon’s a pass.

BRANDON AIYUK (BDF Rank: WR26; ADP: WR25)

Aiyuk was 18th in PPR PPG, but that’ll take a hit with Kittle getting half a season back. It’s worth noting that Aiyuk with and without Kittle in the lineup were two totally different players (16.9 PPG in 6 games without Kittle, 10.6 PPG in 6 games with him). That being said, Richie James is a former return specialist who won’t inhale looks, and Kendrick Bourne’s 74 targets were never replaced. All this amounts to BDF’s projected 12.8 PPG, making Aiyuk a high-volume WR3 and a solid flex option.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Aiyuk is the clear as day #1 WR in this offense, and he’s going at a reasonable ADP. Other WRs near his ADP have some major causes for alarm: Golladay has to adapt to a new team, Chase must overcome the typical struggles of a rookie WR, and Odell’s still recovering from his ACL tear. If you’re in that range and Aiyuk’s on the board, don’t hesitate.

DEEBO SAMUEL (BDF Rank: WR45; ADP: WR39)

Like Aiyuk, Deebo has some pretty extreme with-without Kittle splits as well (19 PPG in 2 games without, 10.5 PPG in 4 games with). Deebo finished 35th in PPG (excluding a game where he played a single snap), so it’s a similar drop-off to Aiyuk’s. To only cite the numbers, though, would be a glaring omission of Deebo’s hilarious way of getting there. He finished 2020 with -7(!!) yards before catch. Even most RBs at least break even! Conversely though, Deebo’s work after the catch was pretty impressive. He was the only player in the league with 10+ grabs to top 12 YAC/catch. That’s right, the glorified RB beat out all of the league’s best receiving backs. Unfortunately, Deebo’s role is too niche for him to put up the numbers required to be a consistent fantasy starter.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT FADE. The man of a thousand screen passes does well to maximize his looks, there just doesn’t figure to be that many once Kittle and Aiyuk have their fill; in fact, BDF has him finishing 62nd in WR targets. He’ll have some big weeks, but the ADP’s a tad rich for our blood.

RICHIE JAMES (BDF Rank: WR99; ADP: N/A)

The special teamer barely sneaks into the top 100. He’s actually fairly efficient; BDF projects him to rank 33rd among WRs in yards/target. With the full cast of characters returning though, James will be left with the scraps. His explosiveness makes him a nice play if there’s an apocalyptic amount of injuries again, but until then he’s not doing much.

BDF Suggestion – SLIGHT BUY. Relative to a non-existent ADP, James provides some value. Those in 16-team leagues should keep him in mind.

GEORGE KITTLE (BDF Rank: TE3; ADP: TE3)

Waller’s gargantuan volume vaults him over Kittle both for BDF and in ADP. Still, Kittle himself should be as good as ever. Out of 28 TEs projected for 60+ targets, BDF has him with more yards/target than any of them. His target share will decline simply as a result of having Aiyuk and Deebo back in earnest after missing a combined 13 games last year. An inevitable TD boost will balance that out though; it’s highly unlikely he scores just twice again. Kittle may only be the TE3 this year, but he’s the undisputed TE3. Snagging him a couple rounds ahead of where you’d be playing tier 2 roulette with Hockenson/Andrews/Pitts is well worth it.

BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. The consensus seems to be that Kittle’s a mid-3rd rounder. If you’ve already committed to WR in one or both of rounds 1 and 2, Kittle can help you gain a positional advantage.