MIAMI DOLPHINS
Photo Credit: Miami Dolphins
OVERVIEW
We still need to see them take the field, but this Phins offense shows a lot of promise on paper. One of last year’s waiver wire darlings, Myles Gaskin took the backfield by storm in 2020, and there’s no reason he can’t be a legit RB2 again. Fuller is a legit WR2 when he’s actually healthy (he’s good enough to buck the norm of receivers struggling on a new team, too). Oh, and there’s a legit TE1 on the roster in Gesicki (finished 7th last year). Above all, though, Tua’s finally healthy, and he might just be the diamond in the rough of this year’s fantasy draft; you heard it from BDF first!
TUA TAGOVAILOA (BDF Rank: QB12; ADP: QB22)
A double-digit ADP gap for a QB is monstrous. Even if you’re not buying all the way in at QB12, you have to admit QB22’s pretty low for a guy who just got 2 new blue chip receivers to target. To be fair, Tua’s yards/attempt last year was pretty brutal; only Darnold, Wentz, and Alex Smith were worse starting QBs. However, given that Preston “most athletic man ever named Preston” Williams was his second WR option, it’s not a great indication of how 2021 will go. BDF has that yards/attempt figure jumping all the way to 6th. It’s really not that crazy considering Waddle led all power-5 schools in YAC, and Fuller’s 6th among active receivers in career yards per catch. The only slight hiccup is that BDF has Tua’s completion percentage dropping from his below average 64.1% to an even worse 61.7%. It comes with the territory of taking more deep shots, which ultimately serve this offense and (far more importantly) Fantasy Tua very well.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG BUY. BUY THE DIP!! Tua is BDF’s best QB bargain for sure and one of the best across the board. His main receiving quartet, while having no true stars, has zero holes. The last time we saw a truly healthy Tua he was running gangbusters on the best conference in the game (sure, it was the cushy confines of a ‘Bama offense, but still!). He’ll be much closer to that Tua in 2021 than the toiling QB3 we saw last year.
MYLES GASKIN (BDF Rank: RB15; ADP: RB21)
This ADP gap makes far less sense to us than the Tua one. Maybe it’s because Gaskin only played 10 games, but he finished with the 12th highest PPG among RBs. He’s also already a top 5 receiving back; he was third in receiving yards/game for RBs, and BDF has him finishing fourth this year. Gaskin also showed great resiliency, putting up 90 yards after returning from IR and 87 after coming back from COVID. If the public’s dinging him for being injury-prone, it’s not totally fair since COVID shouldn’t be an issue now. He also missed just 2 out of 54 games in his career at Washington. There tends not to be much value available at the RB position, so if you’ve got a fifth rounder and a Thousand Myles is there, don’t think twice.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. We won’t lie, it’s kind of odd seeing the Phins with a prominent RB. They haven’t been “Lions bad” at the position, but they haven’t had a 1000-yard scrimmage RB since professional E-Sport “athlete” Jay Ajayi in 2016. Gaskin would have to miss a good chunk of the year again for him not to smash that mark this year.
MALCOLM BROWN (BDF Rank: RB58; ADP: RB78)
The big unit’s coming to steal that goal-line work. The last two years he’s scored on one out of 17 carries. For context, that’s about the same ratio as LeGarette Blount when he went off for 18 rushing TDs in 2016, which hasn’t been topped since. BDF projects that rate to drop by about half, but it’s still enough for Brown to be a nuisance. The ADP gap would insinuate that he’ll be a waiver wire gem, but it might not be worth playing TD-roulette just to get startable value out of him. He’s certainly superior to other guys around that ADP, but that’s about the most you can say.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. To be valuable with an ADP that low, you have to have some sort of gimmick. Brown certainly has one; it just doesn’t lend itself to any sort of real consistency. If you’re parsing among the RB70-somes he’s the best option; just pray that you’re never in that position.
SALVON AHMED (BDF Rank: RB81; ADP: RB64)
Literally BDF’s lowest ranked RB. For what it’s worth, if Gaskin goes down again, Ahmed’s the guy, not Brown. Until that happens though, he has no role in this offense whatsoever. Gaskin’s receiving prowess removes the need for a perfunctory scat, and Brown won’t lose goal line carries to a back who’s 30 pounds lighter. Don’t waste a roster spot on a handcuff when the starter isn’t actually injury-prone.
BDF Suggestion – STRONG FADE. Ahmed is kind of like Miami’s Wayne Gallman. Sure, he could come into some volume if Gaskin gets hurt, but even with 10 starts and total autonomy over the backfield for the Giants last year, Gallman was just RB33. Goes to show even the absolute best-case scenario for Ahmed won’t provide much value.
WILL FULLER (BDF Rank: WR35; ADP: WR38)
The immediate context required is that BDF projects Fuller to miss 3 games (on top of serving the last game of his suspension). Even still, Fuller’s the one to own in this receiving corps. Fuller deserves a huge amount of credit for Watson having his best year to date without Nuk. With the training wheels off this year, look for Tua to start unleashing the deep ball, and not a ton of guys catch it better than Fuller, who finished 13th among WRs last year in yards before catch/reception. The injury variance will certainly be the driving force behind his overall finish (it’s worth mentioning that he actually stayed healthy in 2020, even though he only played 11 games due to his suspension). However, on a week-to-week basis, there’s not much better value out there. It’s highly doubtful Fuller plays all 16 games he can play (again, suspension), but BDF would have him at WR17 if that happened. Just hope that Fuller Roulette doesn’t go awry come playoff time.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. It’s hard to judge someone who’s missed as much time as Fuller by season totals. Even if Fuller misses 1 or 2 games instead of 3, he still slots in as a BDF WR3. His overall ADP’s 85 in 1QB, meaning you can stash him on your bench and you’re not totally hung out to dry during the playoffs if he misses time. With his upside, don’t be afraid to take him a round ahead of ADP.
JAYLEN WADDLE (BDF Rank: WR46; ADP: WR46)
Both BDF and the public scoff at Waddle due to his overall mediocre college stats. Even his 17-game pace falls short of 1000 yards; he barely surpassed 3 catches a game. Of course, Waddle’s 2020 season holds the most magnitude. Framing him as a one-hit wonder though only puts him in a slightly better light. He didn’t exactly help himself by finding the endzone, either. Even Ruggs, who played full seasons without topping 800 yards, had a double-digit TD season. Like Ruggs, Waddle is a glossy speed demon who doesn’t really have a ton of fantasy value.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. Waddle’s a fringe roster player who just isn’t productive enough with his targets to make a more relevant impact. Even if he surpasses Parker as the #2 WR, Gaskin, Fuller, and Gesicki all command prominent workloads. Waddle can get by on the scraps, but he won’t be much more than a bye week fill-in.
DEVANTE PARKER (BDF Rank: WR53; ADP: WR49)
Maybe Fitz was the Devante whisperer all along! Aside from that awesome 2019, which got Parker a meaty extension, he’s never had an 800-yard season. Of course, he hits it last year if he doesn’t miss two games, but with Fuller and Waddle in the mix, his 8-targets-per-game pace from 2020 is history. Parker’s also never broken 4 TDs in a season, sans 2019. Diminished volume, poor rate of finding the end zone, and general one-hit-wonder-ness puts Parker, who finished 40th last year, in fringe roster-able territory.
BDF Suggestion – FAIR VALUE. The public seems to be privy to this line of thinking, as well. BDF projects Parker for the 4th most targets/game on the team; anyone in that position would have a tough time thriving. He was wildly efficient in 2019 with a yards/target of 9.4, but he’s been in the 7’s or lower every other year out of the last four. He requires a fair amount of volume just to be mediocre; should that projected volume dissipate even more, Parker could be on the verge of fading into fantasy obscurity.
PRESTON WILLIAMS (BDF Rank: WR67; ADP: WR128)
Despite being pushed to the precipice of the real life roster, Preston is good enough to still lurk around the waiver wire. He ranked 17th among WRs last year in fantasy points per target, noteworthy since he was barely thrown to once a quarter. Even with such sparse usage, he scored a TD every other game. Preston’s Achilles heel is his disastrous catch rate, barely clearing 50% each of the last 2 years. Still, if 2020’s efficiency with Tua holds any water, he’ll be a bargain pickup down the line.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. He’s officially in “not even on the public radar” territory. Given their respective performances with Tua last year, it’s totally feasible that Preston eventually passes Parker on the depth chart. In that event, he’s a Fuller injury away from being the number two receiver. He’s not worth rostering right away, but don’t wait too long for a breakout.
MIKE GESICKI (BDF Rank: TE7; ADP: TE10)
BDF has Gesicki finishing 7th in targets with 108; next closest is Hooper with 93. His targets/game is within 1 of Hockenson, projected 3rd. This is all to say Gesicki falls into a clear 2nd tier of TEs in terms of putting up volume. This allows him to maintain that 7th place spot, even though you’d have to drop all the way down to Engram at TE18 to find someone projected for fewer TDs. As a tight end, his target share is fairly secure despite the new adds. It’s always hard to find certainty after the elite TEs go, but Gesicki will get steady looks week to week.
BDF Suggestion – BUY. We can see how people would think Gesicki would get lost in the shuffle in Miami, but he’s the only flex player in this offense totally free of question marks: Fuller has an injury history and is playing for a new team, Waddle’s a rookie receiver, and Parker’s just fading. His overall 119 ADP is absolutely robbery. Take him at least a couple rounds ahead of that.